SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899

发表时间：

2023-05

期刊：

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其他

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作者：

F. Massonnet;S. Barreira;A. Barthélemy;R. Bilbao;E. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth;E. Blockley;D. Bromwich;M. Bushuk;Xiaoran Dong;H. Goessling;W. Hobbs;D. Iovino;Woo-Sung Lee;Cuihua Li;W. Meier;W. Merryfield;E. Moreno‐Chamarro;Y. Morioka;Xuewei Li;B. Niraula;A. Petty;A. Sanna;Mariana Scilingo;Qi Shu;M. Sigmond;Nico Sun;S. Tietsche;Xingren Wu;Qinghua Yang;X. Yuan

近年来，南极海冰预测受到越来越多的关注，特别是在 2022 年 2 月和 2023 年创下历史新低的背景下。随着南极洲成为气候变化热点、极地旅游业的蓬勃发展以及科学考察队继续探索这片偏远大陆，提前数周至数月预测海冰状况的能力的需求不断增加。最近的研究揭示了南极海冰可预测性的物理机制，并且近年来观测到的海冰范围发生了令人感兴趣的巨大变化，在这些研究的推动下，南海冰预测网络 (SIPN South) 项目于 2017 年启动，以北极海冰预测网络为基础。 SIPN South 项目每年协调南极海冰状况的春季至夏季预测，以进行稳健的评估和相互比较，并指导极地预测系统的未来发展。在本文中，我们介绍并讨论了 SIPN South 在六个夏季（2017 年 12 月至 2018 年 2 月至 2022 年 - 2023 年）收集的初步结果。我们使用来自五大洲 22 个独特贡献者的数据，这些贡献者总共提供了 3000 多个海冰面积和浓度的单独预测。 SIPN South对环极海冰区域的中值预报捕捉到了近期负异常的迹象，验证观测结果系统地包含在预报分布的10-90%范围内。这些陈述在区域层面也成立，但罗斯海除外，那里的系统偏差和集合分布最大。一个值得注意的发现是，通过汇总每个贡献者提供的数据构建的团体预测，无论是在极地还是区域层面，都优于大多数个人预测。这表明结合预测来平均模型特定误差的价值。最后，我们发现，在表示夏季海冰浓度的区域变化方面，动力模型预测（即基于过程的大气环流模型）通常比统计模型预测（即包括机器学习在内的数据驱动的经验模型）表现更差。 SIPN South 是一个协作社区项目，托管在共享公共存储库上。 SIPN South 使用的预测和验证数据几乎实时公开，供极地研究界以及最终决策者进一步使用。

Antarctic sea ice prediction has garnered increasing attention in recent years, particularly in the context of the recent record lows of February 2022 and 2023. As Antarctica becomes a climate change hotspot, as polar tourism booms, and as scientific expeditions continue to explore this remote continent, the capacity to anticipate sea ice conditions weeks to months in advance is in increasing demand. Spurred by recent studies that uncovered physical mechanisms of Antarctic sea ice predictability and by the intriguing large variations of the observed sea ice extent in recent years, the Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) project was initiated in 2017, building upon the Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Network. The SIPN South project annually coordinates spring-to-summer predictions of Antarctic sea ice conditions, to allow robust evaluation and intercomparison, and to guide future development in polar prediction systems. In this paper, we present and discuss the initial SIPN South results collected over six summer seasons (December-February 2017-2018 to 2022-2023). We use data from 22 unique contributors spanning five continents that have together delivered more than 3000 individual forecasts of sea ice area and concentration. The SIPN South median forecast of the circumpolar sea ice area captures the sign of the recent negative anomalies, and the verifying observations are systematically included in the 10-90% range of the forecast distribution. These statements also hold at the regional level except in the Ross Sea where the systematic biases and the ensemble spread are the largest. A notable finding is that the group forecast, constructed by aggregating the data provided by each contributor, outperforms most of the individual forecasts, both at the circumpolar and regional levels. This indicates the value of combining predictions to average out model-specific errors. Finally, we find that dynamical model predictions (i.e., based on process-based general circulation models) generally perform worse than statistical model predictions (i.e., data-driven empirical models including machine learning) in representing the regional variability of sea ice concentration in summer. SIPN South is a collaborative community project that is hosted on a shared public repository. The forecast and verification data used in SIPN South are publicly available in near-real time for further use by the polar research community, and eventually, policymakers.

SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions

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