Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya
Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya
复制标题
对肯尼亚西部生产的猪肉接触猪带绦虫的风险进行建模
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
E. Fèvre
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. F. Thomas;W. D. de Glanville;E. A. J. Cook;B. M. D. Bronsvoort;Ian G. Handel;C. N. Wamae;Samuel Kariuki;E. Fèvre
猪带绦虫是引起神经囊虫病的寄生虫，神经囊虫病是一种被忽视的具有公共卫生重要性的热带疾病，被认为是引起流行地区约1/3的癫痫病例的原因。食用未煮熟的受感染猪肉通过在社区中建立成虫绦虫感染而使寄生虫的生命周期永久化。因此，减少发展中国家猪肉消费的相关风险是公共卫生的优先事项。这项研究的目的是评估肯尼亚西部任何一份猪肉餐中含有潜在传染性T。在消费点的猪囊尾蚴，寄生虫传播的一个方面，以前没有估计。为了估计这一点，我们使用了Microsoft Excel中的@RISK附加组件中构建的定量食物链风险评估模型。该模型表明，肯尼亚西部消费的任何一顿猪肉都有0.006（99%不确定性区间（U.I）。0.0002-0.0164）含有至少一个活T的概率。猪囊尾蚴，因此对人类具有潜在的传染性。这相当于22，282（99% U.I. 622- 64，134）仅在布西亚地区一年内食用的潜在感染性猪肉餐。该模型表明T.与猪肉消费在肯尼亚西部和这里提出的工作，可以建立在调查当地的各种缓解策略的有效性。
The tapeworm Taenia solium is the parasite responsible for neurocysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease of public health importance, thought to cause approximately 1/3 of epilepsy cases across endemic regions. The consumption of undercooked infected pork perpetuates the parasite’s life-cycle through the establishment of adult tapeworm infections in the community. Reducing the risk associated with pork consumption in the developing world is therefore a public health priority. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of any one pork meal in western Kenya containing a potentially infective T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption, an aspect of the parasite transmission that has not been estimated before. To estimate this, we used a quantitative food chain risk assessment model built in the @RISK add-on to Microsoft Excel. This model indicates that any one pork meal consumed in western Kenya has a 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002–0.0164) probability of containing at least one viable T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption and therefore being potentially infectious to humans. This equates to 22,282 (99% U.I. 622–64,134) potentially infective pork meals consumed in the course of one year within Busia District alone. This model indicates a high risk of T. solium infection associated with pork consumption in western Kenya and the work presented here can be built upon to investigate the efficacy of various mitigation strategies for this locality.