Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere
Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2013.0272
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发表时间：
2015-01-05
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Sugisaki, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beaugrand, G.;Conversi, A.;Sugisaki, H.
政权转移的特征是生态系统状态的突然、实质性和暂时持续的变化。它们涉及重大的生物修饰，往往对已开发的生物资源有重要影响。在这项研究中，我们研究了在北半球（NH）的两个海洋和三个区域海的11个海洋系统中观测到的状态变化是否同步，并对所有系统应用了相同的方法。我们主要从浮游动物组合的突变推断海洋上层制度的变化，除了东太平洋，那里的生态系统变化是从鱼类推断出来的。我们的分析为海洋盆地内部和海洋盆地之间的海洋上层制度变化提供了准同向性的证据，尽管这些变化存在于相当大的年度和低频时间尺度的区域变化中。特别是，1980年代后期在许多研究过的海洋区域发现了一种变化，尽管观测到的变化的确切年份在不同的盆地之间有些不同。1970年代中后期也发现了另一种制度转变，但涉及较少的海洋地区。我们随后分析了与北半球温度和压力异常变化有关的主要生物信号。结果表明：在大尺度上，同步气候变化的主要因子是北半球温度；然而，大气环流的变化似乎也很重要。我们提出，这种准同步的转变可能代表了每个生态系统对气候系统大规模的NH变化的可变滞后的生物响应，包括NH温度的增加和北极涛动的强烈正相。需要进一步的研究来确定温度和大气压力型态的变化及其产生的远相关在大尺度同步状态变化中的相对作用。
Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid-to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.