When Is Difficult Planning Good Planning? The Effects of Scenario-Based Planning on Optimistic Prediction Bias
When Is Difficult Planning Good Planning? The Effects of Scenario-Based Planning on Optimistic Prediction Bias
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1559-1816.2012.00958.x
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Arkes, Hal R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Min, Kyeong Sam;Arkes, Hal R.
一般来说，个体在预测自己何时将完成一项即将进行的活动时往往比较乐观。基于易生成性理论，我们研究了将规划过程分为多个步骤会如何影响现实世界规划中的乐观程度。在实验1中我们发现，当个体通过生成一个相对困难的五步乐观情景而非相对容易的两步乐观情景来描述他们的计划时，乐观预测偏差会降低。在实验2中，当个体生成容易而非困难的悲观情景时，偏差会减小。在实验3中，即使是那些生成容易而非困难的乐观情景的个体，当他们被引导对轻松感进行负面解读时，偏差也会降低。
As a general rule, individuals tend to be optimistic in predicting when they will complete an upcoming activity. Building upon the ease of generation theory, we examined how dividing the planning process into multiple steps would impact the magnitude of optimism in real world planning. In Experiment 1 we found a decrease in optimistic prediction bias when individuals described their plans by generating a relatively difficult five-step, rather than a relatively easy two-step, optimistic scenario. In Experiment 2 the bias diminished when individuals generated the easy, rather than difficult, pessimistic scenario. In Experiment 3 the bias decreased even among individuals who generated the easy, rather than difficult, optimistic scenario when they were led to negatively interpret the feeling of ease.