Land-cover change trajectories in Northern Ghana
Land-cover change trajectories in Northern Ghana
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00267-004-0283-7
复制
发表时间：
2005-09-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Vlek, PLG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braimoh, AK;Vlek, PLG
土地覆盖。变化轨迹是复杂的人类环境系统（例如土地利用系统）的新兴属性。了解土地变化轨迹的因素对于土地利用规划和土地相关政策的制定至关重要。本研究的目的是描述和确定加纳北部农业土地覆盖变化轨迹的空间决定因素。使用根据 1984 年、1992 年和 1999 年获取的 Landsat 专题制图器数据集绘制的土地覆盖图来定义土地覆盖变化轨迹。使用二元逻辑回归对观测轨迹的概率进行建模，作为空间明确的生物物理和社会经济自变量的函数。人口密度通常随着土地利用强度的连续性而增加，而距市场和道路的距离通常沿着该连续性而减小。显然，道路和市场起到了定居和农地使用的激励作用。仅对于主要变化过程是农业扩张的轨迹来说，人口密度的增加才是重要的空间决定因素。对人口增长的一个主要反应是主要市场周围种植频率的增加。农业集约化对道路可达性高度敏感。土地利用强度的增加也与土壤质量低下有关。这些结果表明需要制定政策来恢复土壤肥力以实现农业可持续发展。这些模型还提供了一种识别功能关系的方法，以深入分析加纳的土地利用变化。
Land-cover . change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human-environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.