Analyzing the driving and dragging force in China's inter-provincial migration flows
Analyzing the driving and dragging force in China's inter-provincial migration flows
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中国省际人口流动的驱动力和拖拽力分析
DOI：
10.1142/s0129183119400151
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Chen, Qinghua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Xiaomeng;Huang, Siyu;Chen, Qinghua
在中国看来，1950年至2010年间，跨省迁移模式的演变经历了从政策导向到个体选择和热点吸引的演变过程。近年来，中国丰富的区域劳动力流动给几个著名的高增长地区带来了繁荣，但也带来了发展不平衡的问题。要对人口流动进行有效的指导和管理，需要进行系统的分析。本文试图从潜在移民的个体行为出发，用改进的多边移民模型分析中国省际移民流动的驱动力和拖动力。结果表明，20世纪90年代以来，中国地区劳动力流动不平衡问题加剧，典型热点地区的驱动力不同，北京、上海收入较高，广州、浙江门槛较低。分析结果表明，20世纪80年代以来，明显的区域流动壁垒有助于缓解部分省份的劳动力流失问题，但近年来人口流动的区域不平衡程度仍在持续扩大。最后，通过回归分析，揭示了影响区域流动壁垒的主要因素，可以解释70.8%的影响因素。这也表明，对于劳动力流失的省份来说，改善经济、福利环境将有效缓解这一问题。
In China, the evolution of inter-provincial migration patterns is from policy orientation to individual selection and hotspot attraction during 1950-2010. These years, Chinas abundant regional labor flow brings prosperity to several famous high-growth regions, but also causes the problem of unbalanced development. It needs systematic analysis to do effective guidance and management of population mobility. This paper tries to analyze the driving and dragging force in Chinas inter-provincial migration flows with improved multilateral migration model stemming from individual behavior of potential migrants. It revealed the problem of imbalanced regional labor flow has been exacerbated in China since the 1990s, and the driving force for typical hotspots is different, as high income force for Beijing, Shanghai, and low barrier for Guangzhou, Zhejiang. The results of analyzing indicates the the distinct regional mobility barriers help to alleviate the problem of labor loss in some provinces since 1980s, but the regional imbalance in population migration continues to grow in recent years. Finally, with regression, we reveal the essential element affecting regional mobility barriers, and it could explain 70.8% of the influence factors. It also suggests that, for the provinces with labor loss, improving economic, welfare environment will mitigate the problem effectively.