Wintertime Impacts of the 2019 Super IOD on East Asia
Wintertime Impacts of the 2019 Super IOD on East Asia
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl089456
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发表时间：
2020-09-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yamagata, Toshio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doi, Takeshi;Behera, Swadhin K.;Yamagata, Toshio
包括日本在内的东亚许多地区在2019-2020年冬季经历了极其温暖的天气。2019年10月，基于SINTEX-F气候模式的108个成员集合季节预测系统成功预测了这些。通过分析成员间距平的协变性，我们发现印度洋偶极子（IOD）西极的活跃对流通过产生副热带急流的曲流而引起东亚地区的这些异常情况。
Many parts of East Asia, including Japan, experienced extremely warm conditions during the 2019-2020 winter. These were successfully predicted in October of 2019 by the 108-member ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. By analyzing covariability of intermember anomalies defined as deviations from the ensemble mean, we have found that the active convection over the western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) caused these unusual conditions over East Asia by generating the meander of the subtropical jet.