Investigation of space-time clusters and geospatial hot spots for the occurrence of tuberculosis in Beijing
Investigation of space-time clusters and geospatial hot spots for the occurrence of tuberculosis in Beijing
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DOI：
10.5588/ijtld.11.0255
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Guo, X.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Y.;Li, X.;Guo, X.
目的：目的：了解北京市2005 - 2009年确诊肺结核病例的地理和时空分布。设计：采用年度报告率图描述确诊成人肺结核病例的分布。采用Moran’s I空间自相关分析和热点分析方法对结核病的聚集性和热点进行检测。结果：北京市结核病发病率（例/10万人口）从2005年的29.8上升到2009年的35.0。城市发展新区和自然保护区的发病率明显高于其他各区（>30/10万）。整个城市存在显著的空间自相关（u = 2.58，P = 0.01）。结论：空间自相关分析和热点分析可作为发现结核病发病时空聚集和地理空间热点的有效工具。2005 - 2009年北京市结核病发病呈现出人口密度和流动性依赖、生态社会状况依赖的时空聚集和地理空间热点。
OBJECTIVE: To characterise the geographic and spatiotemporal distribution of confirmed tuberculosis (TB) cases in Beijing between 2005 and 2009.DESIGN: The yearly notification rate maps were used to describe the distribution of confirmed adult TB patients. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) and hot-spot analysis were adopted to detect the clusters and hot spots of TB.RESULTS: The TB incidence rate (cases per 100 000 population) in Beijing increased from 29.8 in 2005 to 35.0 in 2009. The incidence rate was significantly higher in the Urban Development New District and the Ecologic Reservation Development District (>30/100000) than in the other districts. There was a significant spatial autocorrelation throughout the city (u = 2.58, P = 0.01). Evident clusters were observed in the Capital Functional Core District and the Urban Function Extension District (G(i)* > 1).CONCLUSION: Spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot analysis may serve as efficient tools to detect space-time clusters and geospatial hot spots of TB incidence. Between 2005 and 2009, TB incidence in Beijing showed population density and mobility-dependent and ecosocial status-dependent space-time clusters and geospatial hot spots.