Differential health responses to climate change projections in three UK cities as measured by ambulance dispatch data
Differential health responses to climate change projections in three UK cities as measured by ambulance dispatch data
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envadv.2021.100146
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发表时间：
2021-11
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gina C. Prichard;Kamolrat Sangkharat;P. Fisher;J. Thornes;R. Phalkey;Francis D. Pope
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gina C. Prichard;Kamolrat Sangkharat;P. Fisher;J. Thornes;R. Phalkey;Francis D. Pope
背景气候变化影响当代健康，并有可能进一步影响未来的健康。本文调查了英国三个主要城市的救护车调度与健康的关系：伯明翰、格拉斯哥和伦敦，它们有不同的气候。未来气候的作用，总的救护车调度和特定的调度与呼吸困难和assaults.MethodsA分布滞后非线性建模（DLNM）的方法进行了建模和比较相对风险（RR）在每个城市的温度范围。输入数据为每个城市的日平均温度和救护车调度。最初的测试表明，如果每周最高和最低温度平均值，而不是使用每日平均值，结果几乎没有变化。每个城市的模型用于预测未来的风险，归因数（AN）和归因分数（AF）。温度预测是从英国气候预测2018年（UKCP18）使用RCP8.5高排放scenarios.ResultsThe温度和救护车调度之间的关系都是非线性的，在三个城市相同的变量显示不同的关系。格拉斯哥在高温下的风险增加较小且最不显著（第95百分位数），而所有城市在低温下的风险均显着增加（第5百分位数）。根据RCP 8.5，到2060年，预计伦敦和伯明翰的RR将增加，格拉斯哥将减少。因此，每天派遣归因于温度增加11每天在伦敦，2在伯明翰，并减少1在格拉斯哥到2060年，假设没有变化的城市人口或人口统计学。ConclusionThis本文表明，在英国的三个城市的健康和环境温度之间的关系是不同的。它还显示，根据RCP 8. 5预测，对于恒定的人口，伦敦和伯明翰的救护车调度可能会增加，但对于格拉斯哥，它们将减少。这些研究结果有助我们根据气象及气候预测，制订救护车使用需求预测。
BackgroundClimate change impacts contemporary health and has the potential to further impact health in the future. This paper investigates ambulance dispatch-health relationships for three major cities in the UK: Birmingham; Glasgow; and London, which have distinct climates. The role of future climate on total ambulance dispatches and specific dispatches associated with breathing difficulties and assaults are investigated.MethodsA Distributed Lag Non-Linear modelling (DLNM) approach was used to model and compare relative risk (RR) across the temperature range for each city. Input data were daily mean temperature for each city and ambulance dispatches. Initial testing indicated that little variation in outcome occurred if maximum and minimum weekly temperature was averaged instead of using the daily means. The models for each city are used to make projections of future risk, attributable number (AN), and attributable fraction (AF). The temperature projections were from the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) using the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario.ResultsThe relationships between temperature and ambulance dispatches were all non-linear, with different relationships for the same variables shown in the three cities. Glasgow showed a smaller and least significant increase in risk at high temperatures (95thpercentile), whereas all cities showed significant increases in risk at low temperatures (5thpercentile). Under RCP8.5, by 2060, RR is projected to increase in London and Birmingham, and to decrease in Glasgow. As such, the number of daily dispatches attributed to temperature increases by 11 per day in London, 2 in Birmingham, and decreases by 1 in Glasgow by 2060, assuming no changes in city population or demographics.ConclusionThis paper demonstrates that relationships between health and ambient temperatures within three cities in the UK are different. It also shows that under RCP8.5 projections, for a constant population, ambulance dispatches in London and Birmingham will likely increase, but for Glasgow, they will decrease. These findings can contribute to developing demand forecasts for ambulance usage based on meteorological and climatological forecasts.