Parameters influencing the market value of wind power – a model‐based analysis of the Central European power market
Parameters influencing the market value of wind power – a model‐based analysis of the Central European power market
复制标题
影响风电市场价值的参数——基于模型的中欧电力市场分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Saguan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Obersteiner;M. Saguan
在欧洲主要的风力发电国家，风力发电已经影响到今天的批发电价。第一次调查表明，各自的风力发电价格关系降低了风力发电的市场价值相对于基本负荷价格增加渗透。本文的目的是确定参数，确定这种效果的基础上模拟中欧电力市场（CEPM）。我们建立风力发电价格的相互作用模型，并研究了市场价值对风力发电和系统相关参数的敏感性。风电的市场价值对风电份额和波动性、风电需求相关性和供给特性的变化很敏感。结果进一步表明，对于2020年的预期风电容量，CEPM的市场价值显着低于基荷价格。市场价值降低效应因国家而异，对于发电量与各自电力市场中的整体风力发电量弱相关的风力发电组合而言，市场价值降低效应较低。因此，随着风电份额的增加，在评估风电项目的经济性时，将这种影响考虑在内将变得越来越重要。未来可能对市场价值产生积极影响的CEPM趋势是电力需求、燃料和CO2价格的增加，CEPM内陆上风电的地理分布更好，海上风电的利用率越来越高。版权所有© 2010约翰威利父子有限公司。
SUMMARY In leading European wind power countries wind power generation affects wholesale power prices already today. First investigations indicate that the respective wind power-price relation lowers the market value of wind power relative to the baseload price with increasing penetration. The aim of this paper is to identify parameters that determine this effect based on simulations for the Central European Power Market (CEPM). We model wind power-price interactions and investigate the sensitivity of the market value on a number of wind power and system related parameters. The market value of wind power is sensitive to changes in wind share and variability, wind-demand correlation and the supply characteristics. Results further indicate that for expected wind capacities in 2020 the market value in the CEPM is significantly lower than the baseload price. The market value reducing effect varies among countries and is comparably low for wind power portfolios whose generation is weakly correlated with the overall wind power generation in the respective power market. Hence with rising wind shares it will become increasingly important to take this effectintoaccountwhenassessingtheeconomicsofwindpowerprojects.FuturetrendsintheCEPMthatmaypositivelyinfluencethemarketvalue are increasing electricity demand, fuel and CO2 prices, a better geographic distribution of onshore wind within the CEPM and an increasing utilization of offshore wind. Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.