Z-method for power system resource adequacy applications
Z-method for power system resource adequacy applications
复制标题
电力系统资源充足性应用的Z法
DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2006.873417
复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
V. Dvortsov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Dragoon;V. Dvortsov
公用事业公司长期以来一直在努力建立资源规划标准，以确保有足够的资源以低成本满足负荷。从历史上看，许多公用事业公司都使用规划准备金标准。放松管制的开始带来了范式转变，人们期望市场在系统需求增长的过程中提供更有效的机制来维持资源充足性。放松管制后，中西部和加利福尼亚州出现严重电力短缺，导致大多数地区重新审视集中资源规划和综合资源计划的必要性。许多资源规划者继续使用储备裕度技术来确保资源充足。基于模拟的概率评估可以提供更直接的充分性衡量标准，但计算量相当大，因此只能探索有限数量的场景。在本文中，我们提出了一种简单的分析概率方法来维持资源充足性并计算增量发电机组的峰值负荷承载能力。该方法的目标是系统扩展时的系统充足性水平，而不是特定的准备金率。它提供了一种强大的技术，可以简单地计算资源添加的基于概率的承载能力，而无需迭代运行计算密集型随机计算机模型。该技术还提供了一种简单但有效的方法来开发对系统充分性具有可比贡献的资源组合。后者可以用在容量扩展算法中，作为比目标规划储备裕度更简单、更有效和更准确的确定最低成本资源添加的方法。这些技术在 IEEE 可靠性测试系统中的应用说明了方法并使用随机模型验证了结果。
Utilities have long struggled with establishing resource planning criteria that ensure adequate resources to meet loads at low cost. Historically, many utilities used planning reserve margin criteria. The onset of deregulation brought about a paradigm shift in which it was expected that markets would provide a more efficient mechanism for maintaining resource sufficiency in the course of system demand growth. Major power shortages in the Midwest and California in the wake of deregulation led to a reexamination by most regions of the need for centralized resource planning and integrated resource plans. Reserve margin techniques continue to be used by many resource planners to ensure resource adequacy. Simulation-based probabilistic assessments can provide a more direct measure of adequacy but are quite intensive computationally and therefore only allow exploring a limited number of scenarios. In this paper, we suggest a simple analytical probabilistic approach to maintaining resource adequacy and calculating peak load carrying capability of incremental generating units. The methodology targets a level of system adequacy, rather than a specified reserve margin, under system expansion. It provides a powerful technique for simply calculating probability-based load carrying capability of resource additions without iteratively running computationally intensive stochastic computer models. The technique also provides a simple but effective method for developing portfolios of resources with comparable contributions to system adequacy. The latter may be employed in capacity expansion algorithms as a simpler, more efficient, and more accurate method of determining least-cost resource additions than targeting planning reserve margins. Applications of these techniques to the IEEE Reliability Test System illustrate the methods and verify the results with a stochastic model.