Reducing the ecological footprint of urban cars
Reducing the ecological footprint of urban cars
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减少城市汽车的生态足迹
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Wackernagel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bonnie McBain;M. Lenzen;G. Albrecht;M. Wackernagel
摘要本研究发展了生态足迹的决策能力。我们在生态足迹模型中引入的新功能使我们能够在面对日益复杂的管理时澄清政策选择，因为世界更加相互关联和不确定。我们研究了三种减少城市汽车交通生态足迹的说明性政策选择的有效性：（1）提高效率/技术，（2）替代替代燃料混合物，（3）通过改变城市形式减少需求。我们调查成功的政策选择在澳大利亚的一个次国家案例研究管辖区，但在不确定的全球背景下。我们使用一个弹性框架，该框架考虑了关键的社会，经济和环境变量，多个尺度和多种可能的未来。我们发现，推迟减少交通部门二氧化碳排放的政策选择将增加社会所承担的风险，这是由于未来全球的不确定性、全球协调气候变化行动的不确定时间以及石油峰值的时间。我们还发现，当地政策的成功受到占主导地位的全球未来的影响。生态足迹的使用使政策能够了解二氧化碳排放和土地需求增加的后果。该研究提供了一个决策框架，使当地决策者能够在全球不确定性的情况下制定强有力的政策。这一框架对世界各地其他国家和/或国家以下各级司法管辖区具有更广泛的适用性。
ABSTRACT This study develops the policy-making capabilities of the Ecological Footprint. The new capabilities we introduce in our Ecological Footprint model allow us to clarify policy options in the face of the increasing management complexity due to a more interconnected and uncertain world. We investigate the effectiveness of three illustrative policy options for reducing the Ecological Footprint of urban car transport: (1) improvements in efficiency/technology, (2) substitution with alternate fuel mixes, and (3) the reduction in demand by altering urban form. We investigate the success of policy options for a subnational case study jurisdiction in Australia, but in the uncertain global context. We use a resilience framework that considers critical social, economic, and environmental variables, multiple scales, and multiple possible futures. We find that delaying policy options to mitigate CO2 emissions from the transport sector will increase the risks borne by society as a result of future global uncertainty, the uncertain timing of globally coordinated action on climate change and the timing of peak oil. We also find that the success of local policy is affected by the global future which prevails. The use of the Ecological Footprint allows policy to be informed by the consequences of both CO2 emissions and increasing demand for land. The study provides a decision-making framework that allows local decision makers to make robust policy despite global uncertainty. This framework has wider applicability to other nations and/or subnational jurisdictions worldwide.