Temporal variations in water resources in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) over the Industrial Period based on reconstruction of missing monthly discharges
Temporal variations in water resources in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) over the Industrial Period based on reconstruction of missing monthly discharges
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DOI：
10.1029/2009wr008589
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发表时间：
2010-10
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
S. L. Yang;Z. Liu-;S. Dai;Z. Gao;J. Zhang;H. Wang;X. Luo;C. S. Wu;Z. Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. L. Yang;Z. Liu-;S. Dai;Z. Gao;J. Zhang;H. Wang;X. Luo;C. S. Wu;Z. Zhang
评估工业化时期河流排放对人为影响和气候变化的响应，本文用回归的方法重建了长江干流三个站的月流量序列（利用各应变片之间的互相关），并对综合数据进行了分析（观测到的一系列排放量，缺失值由重建值填补）与人类活动和气候变率的关系。三个测站实测流量与预测流量的相关系数R2 = 0.90-0.96（n = 827-1557）。入海流量的综合时间序列显示出2007年、2014年和2038年的周期性，我们发现8月至11月的年流量（-11%）和月流量（11月为-47%）呈显著下降趋势，而旱季的1月流量（+30%）和2月流量呈上升趋势。这些趋势主要归因于人类的影响，特别是水库建设和用水。由于南水北调工程的影响，以及流域内用水量的增加和新水坝的建设，预计这种趋势在本世纪的未来几十年将继续下去。
To evaluate the response of river discharge to anthropogenic impacts and climate variability over the Industrial Period, we reconstructed past series of monthly discharge from three gauges on the main river of the Yangtze by means of regression (making use of the cross correlation among the gauges) and analyzed the integrated data (the observed series of discharge with missing values filled by reconstructed values) for the period 1865–2008 in relation to human activities and climate variability. The correlative coefficients between observed and predicted discharges at the three stations for the gauging period are R2 = 0.90–0.96 (n = 827–1557). The integrated time series of discharge to the sea shows periodicities of ∼7, ∼14, and ∼38 years, and we found significant decreasing trends in annual discharge (−11%) and monthly discharge from August to November (−47% for November) and an increasing trend in discharge in January (+30%) and February during the dry season. These trends are mainly attributed to human impacts, in particular, reservoir construction and water consumption. It is estimated that these trends will continue in the future decades of this century because of the influence of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project as well as increased water consumption and the construction of new dams within the river basin.