Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall
Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall
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北极海冰减少对冬季降雪的影响
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1114910109
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发表时间：
2012-03-13
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Horton, Radley M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Jiping;Curry, Judith A.;Horton, Radley M.
虽然北极地区近几十年来一直在强烈变暖，但最近几个冬天的大降雪影响了北美，欧洲和东亚的大部分地区。在这里，我们证明了秋季北极海冰面积的减少与冬季北方半球大气环流的变化有关，这些变化与冬季北极涛动的负相有一些相似之处。然而，与海冰减少有关的大气环流变化显示出中纬度更广泛的纬向弯曲，与经典的北极涛动相比，年际变率明显不同。这种环流变化导致阻塞模式更加频繁，导致北方大陆大部分地区的冷涌增加。此外，在晚秋和冬季，北极地区大气水蒸气含量的增加是由海冰减少造成的，这提供了更多的水分来源，支持了欧洲初冬和美国东北部和中西部冬季的大雪。我们的结论是，最近北极海冰的下降在最近的寒冷和多雪的冬天发挥了关键作用。
While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.