The Adaptive Value of Energy Efficiency Programs in a Warmer World
The Adaptive Value of Energy Efficiency Programs in a Warmer World
复制标题
能源效率计划在变暖世界中的适应性价值
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Cort
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Scott;J. Dirks;K. Cort
美国住宅和商业建筑目前每年使用约39 quadrature-Btu（quads）的能源，并向大气排放0.6千兆吨（GT）的碳（占美国总排放量1.6 GT的38%，约占世界化石燃料相关人为排放量6.7 GT的9%）。美国政府长期以来一直资助与建筑物相关的能源效率研究和实施计划，以减少建筑物的能源消耗，减少导致全球变暖的空气污染和碳排放。这些计划也有价值，使美国的住宅和商业建筑存量适应一个可能变暖的世界。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）进行的分析表明，到2030年，世界气候可能比1990年升高0.4°C至1.2°C，到21世纪末升高1.4°C至5.8°C。本文表明，区域变暖对美国住宅和商业建筑能耗的影响是净下降，从2020年的5%到2080年的20%，但对温度敏感的电力需求增加了25%。对美国能源部（DOE）与建筑相关的能源效率计划对未来美国能源消耗的潜在价值的计算显示，到2020年，现场能源节省超过2个四倍，这将超过抵消由于气候和建筑存量增长而导致的温度敏感性能源消耗的增长，价值在280亿至330亿美元之间。«少
U.S. residential and commercial buildings currently use about 39 quadrillion Btu (quads) of energy per year and account for 0.6 gigatonnes (GT) of carbon emitted to the atmosphere (38% of U.S. total emissions of 1.6 GT and approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic emissions of 6.7 GT). The U.S. government has long funded buildings-related energy efficiency research and implementation programs to reduce energy consumption in buildings and to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions that result in global warming. These programs also have value in adapting the U.S. residential and commercial building stock to a potentially warmer world. Analyses conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the world’s climate could warm relative to1990 by 0.4°C to 1.2°C by the year 2030 and by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by the end of the 21st century. This paper shows that the effect of the regional projected warming on energy consumption in U.S. residential and commercial buildings is a net decrease ranging from about 5% in 2020 to as much as 20% in 2080, but with an increase of as much as 25% in temperature-sensitive electricity demand. Calculations of the potential value of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)more » buildings-related energy efficiency programs on future U.S. energy consumption show site energy savings in 2020 of more than 2 quads, which would more than offset the growth in temperature-sensitive energy consumption due to climate and growth in building stock combined, and would be worth between $28 and $33 billion.« less