Random load fluctuations and collapse probability of a power system operating near codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation
Random load fluctuations and collapse probability of a power system operating near codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation
复制标题
余维1鞍节点分岔附近电力系统的随机负荷波动和崩溃概率
DOI：
10.1109/pesmg.2013.6672637
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Turitsyn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Podolsky;K. Turitsyn
对于在其传输系统的功率传输极限附近操作的电力系统，功率负载的随机波动的影响可能变得至关重要，因为足够强的这种波动可能激活电压不稳定并导致系统的大规模崩溃。考虑到这些随机波动附近的余维1鞍结分岔的影响，我们明确计算的状态向量的自相关函数，并显示其行为如何解释临界减速的现象经常观察到的电力系统停电的阈值。我们还估计了崩溃概率/平均清除时间的电力系统，并构建了一个新的指标函数信号接近大规模崩溃。新的指标函数是很容易估计的真实的时间使用的数据从PMU和SCADA信息的电力负荷波动的节点上的电网。我们讨论的控制策略，导致崩溃概率最小化。
For a power system operating in the vicinity of the power transfer limit of its transmission system, effect of stochastic fluctuations of power loads can become critical as a sufficiently strong such fluctuation may activate voltage instability and lead to a large scale collapse of the system. Considering the effect of these stochastic fluctuations near a codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation, we explicitly calculate the autocorrelation function of the state vector and show how its behavior explains the phenomenon of critical slowing-down often observed for power systems on the threshold of blackout. We also estimate the collapse probability/mean clearing time for the power system and construct a new indicator function signaling the proximity to a large scale collapse. The new indicator function is easy to estimate in real time using data from PMU and SCADA information about power load fluctuations on the nodes of the grid. We discuss control strategies leading to the minimization of the collapse probability.