Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry
Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo416
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发表时间：
2009-02
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
P. Goodwin;Richard G. Williams;A. Ridgwell;M. Follows
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Goodwin;Richard G. Williams;A. Ridgwell;M. Follows
碳循环在气候变化中发挥着核心作用。例如，在冰川-间冰期循环期间，大气中的二氧化碳改变了辐射强迫，放大了温度变化。然而，目前尚不清楚气候系统对以前地质时期碳循环变化的敏感程度，也不清楚在大规模人为排放之后，这种敏感性在未来可能如何演变。在这里，我们开发了一个分析的关系，链接的变化，从二氧化碳浓度的变化，在大气-海洋碳循环的变化在千年的时间尺度上的辐射强迫。我们发现，这种关系是受海洋储存的碳和化学分配在海水中。我们的分析表明，气候的辐射强迫现在对碳扰动比过去4亿年的大部分时间更敏感。这种高度敏感性可能会持续到未来，因为海洋变得更加酸性，大部分化石燃料库存转移到海洋和大气中。
The carbon cycle has a central role in climate change. For example, during glacial–interglacial cycles, atmospheric carbon dioxide has altered radiative forcing and amplified temperature changes. However, it is unclear how sensitive the climate system has been to changes in carbon cycling in previous geological periods, or how this sensitivity may evolve in the future, following massive anthropogenic emissions. Here we develop an analytical relationship that links the variation of radiative forcing from changes in carbon dioxide concentrations with changes in air–sea carbon cycling on a millennial timescale. We find that this relationship is affected by the ocean storage of carbon and its chemical partitioning in sea water. Our analysis reveals that the radiative forcing of climate is more sensitive to carbon perturbations now than it has been over much of the preceding 400 million years. This high sensitivity is likely to persist into the future as the oceans become more acidic and the bulk of the fossil-fuels inventory is transferred to the ocean and atmosphere.