The Dynamics of Car Sales: A Discrete Choice Approach
The Dynamics of Car Sales: A Discrete Choice Approach
复制标题
汽车销售的动态：离散选择方法
DOI：
10.3386/w7785
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Russell Cooper
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jerome Adda;Russell Cooper;Russell Cooper
Mankiw [1982] 探讨了永久收入假说的含义，即持久支出遵循 ARMA(1,1) 表示。他发现耐用品支出由 AR(1) 过程表示，这意味着在 PIH 模型下耐用品的折旧率为 100%。这一发现提出了一个难题。我们的论文建立在早期工作的基础上，试图通过考虑异质家庭离散动态选择的聚合来解释这个难题。我们通过估计汽车更换的动态离散选择模型来实现这种方法。我们发现通过聚合我们可以解释曼昆结果的 AR 和 MA 部分。此外，我们发现我们的模型能够匹配汽车销量、价格和收入的 VAR 表示。我们发现，汽车销售的大部分变化是由于影响更换概率的冲击造成的。
Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding presents a puzzle. Our paper builds on earlier work which attempts to explain this puzzle by considering the aggregation of the discrete dynamic choices of heterogeneous households. We implement this approach by estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of car replacement. We find that through aggregation we can explain both the AR and MA components of Mankiw's results. Further we find that our model is able to match a VAR representation of car sales, prices and income. We find that most of the variation in car sales is due to shocks which influence the replacement probability.