Bayesian time-series analysis of a repeated-measures poisson outcome with excess zeroes.

Bayesian time-series analysis of a repeated-measures poisson outcome with excess zeroes.
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具有多余零的重复测量泊松结果的贝叶斯时间序列分析。

DOI:
10.1093/aje/kwr252
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发表时间:
2011
影响因子:
5
通讯作者:
Pisani,MargaretA
Pisani,MargaretA
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Murphy,TerrenceE;VanNess,PeterH;Araujo,KatyLB;Pisani,MargaretA

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In this article, the authors demonstrate a time-series analysis based on a hierarchical Bayesian model of a Poisson outcome with an excessive number of zeroes. The motivating example for this analysis comes from the intensive care unit (ICU) of an urban university teaching hospital (New Haven, Connecticut, 2002–2004). Studies of medication use among older patients in the ICU are complicated by statistical factors such as an excessive number of zero doses, periodicity, and within-person autocorrelation. Whereas time-series techniques adjust for autocorrelation and periodicity in outcome measurements, Bayesian analysis provides greater precision for small samples and the flexibility to conduct posterior predictive simulations. By applying elements of time-series analysis within both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks, the authors evaluate differences in shift-based dosing of medication in a medical ICU. From a small sample and with adjustment for excess zeroes, linear trend, autocorrelation, and clinical covariates, both frequentist and Bayesian models provide evidence of a significant association between a specific nursing shift and dosing level of a sedative medication. Furthermore, the posterior distributions from a Bayesian random-effects Poisson model permit posterior predictive simulations of related results that are potentially difficult to model.
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