Influenza pandemic planning
Influenza pandemic planning
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DOI：
10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00076-8
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发表时间：
2003-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Tam, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cox, NJ;Tamblyn, SE;Tam, T
周期性地，新的流感病毒出现并通过易感人群迅速传播，导致世界范围的流行病或大流行。世纪发生了三次大流行。其中第一次也是最具破坏性的一次是1918-1919年的“西班牙流感”（A/H1N1）大流行，据估计，它已导致全世界2000万至5000万人或更多人死亡，年轻人的死亡率异常高[C.W. Potter，Chronicle of influenza pandemics，in：K.G. Nicholson，R.G.韦伯斯特，A. J. Hay（编辑），Textbook of Influenza，Blackwell Science，Oxford，1998，p.3]。与1957年“亚洲流感”（A/H2 N2）和1968年“香港流感”（A/H3 N2）大流行相关的死亡率不太严重，老年人和慢性病患者的超额死亡率最高[J. Infect. Dis.178（1998）53]。然而，在这两次大流行期间发生了相当大的发病率、社会破坏和经济损失[J. Infect. Dis.176（Suppl.1）（1997）S4]。鉴于历史证据和当前对流感生物学、生态学和流行病学的理解，我们有理由假设未来会发生流感大流行。流感病毒是不可能根除的，因为在野生水禽中存在大量甲型流感病毒的所有亚型。在人口密度高的农业社区，如中国，存在大流行性病毒出现和传播的条件。也无法预测下一次大流行何时发生。此外，疾病的严重程度也是不可预测的，因此，在大流行之间的时期，现在必须制定应急计划。这些计划必须足够灵活，以应对不同程度的疾病。出版社：Elsevier Science Ltd
Periodically, novel influenza viruses emerge and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, resulting in worldwide epidemics or pandemics. Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century. The first and most devastating of these, the "Spanish Flu" (A/H1N1) pandemic of 1918-1919, is estimated to have resulted in 20-50 million or more deaths worldwide, with unusually high mortality among young adults [C.W. Potter, Chronicle of influenza pandemics, in: K.G. Nicholson, R.G. Webster, A.J. Hay (Eds.), Textbook of Influenza, Blackwell Science, Oxford, 1998, p. 3]. Mortality associated with the 1957 "Asian Flu" (A/H2N2) and the 1968 "Hong Kong Flu" (A/H3N2) pandemics was less severe, with the highest excess mortality in the elderly and persons with chronic diseases [J. Infect. Dis. 178 (1998) 53]. However, considerable morbidity, social disruption and economic loss occurred during both of these pandemics [J. Infect. Dis. 176 (Suppl. 1) (1997) S4]. It is reasonable to assume that future influenza pandemics will occur, given historical evidence and current understanding of the biology, ecology, and epidemiology of influenza. Influenza viruses are impossible to eradicate, as there is a large reservoir of all subtypes of influenza A viruses in wild aquatic birds. In agricultural-based communities with high human population density such as are found in China, conditions exist for the emergence and spread of pandemic viruses. It is also impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. Moreover, the severity of illness is also unpredictable, so contingency plans must be put in place now during the inter-pandemic period. These plans must be flexible enough to respond to different levels of disease. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.