Stochastic model for simulating levels of polychlorinated biphenyls in small tuna and planktons using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
Stochastic model for simulating levels of polychlorinated biphenyls in small tuna and planktons using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
复制标题
使用 Metropolis-Hastings 算法模拟小型金枪鱼和浮游生物中多氯联苯水平的随机模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecoenv.2022.113941
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Z.;Nishi;Y.
本文提出了一个随机模型来模拟多氯联苯在金枪鱼幼鱼体内的存在和水平。这个模型可以计算多氯联苯在海洋中的传输(宏观现象)和鱼类的生物放大作用(微观现象)。利用Metropolis-Hastings算法从概率分布函数中随机抽样，处理了FISH遇到的多氯联苯浓度的不确定性。该模型被应用于含有运输的多氯联苯和游动的鱼的一维情况。鱼体内的模拟多氯联苯水平与之前研究观察到的水平很好地一致。研究了多氯联苯在鱼体中的空间分布模式和流速对多氯联苯含量的影响。结果表明，该模型对水流分布形态敏感，对水流速度中等敏感。该模型有可能扩展到更现实的情况，并作为环境风险评估的工具。
This paper proposes a stochastic model to simulate the occurrence and levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in juvenile tuna. This model can calculate the transport of PCBs in the ocean (macroscopic phenomena) and biomagnification in fish (microscopic phenomena). The uncertainty in the concentration of the PCBs encountered by fish was treated by adopting a random sampling from the probability distribution function using Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The model was applied to one-dimensional cases with transported PCBs and swimming fish. The simulated PCBs levels in the fish agreed well with levels observed by previous studies. Influences of PCBs spatial distribution patterns and current velocity on the PCBs levels in fish body was examined. The results showed that the model was sensitive to the distribution pattern and moderately sensitive to the current velocity. The model has the potential to be extended to more realistic situations and to serve as a tool for environmental risk assessment.