New procedures to estimate water temperatures and water depths for application in climate-dengue modeling
New procedures to estimate water temperatures and water depths for application in climate-dengue modeling
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DOI：
10.1093/jmedent/35.5.646
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发表时间：
1998-09-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Nnaji, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheng, SQ;Kalkstein, LS;Nnaji, A
已经开发了两种新的方法来估计容器中的水温和水深，这些容器通常被用作登革热病毒的主要载体蚊子的繁殖场所。这些估计被纳入最近开发的随机模拟模型中，用于描述城市环境中登革热病毒传播的日常动态。水温估计值是通过一个回归模型提供的，该模型包括以前没有使用过的气象变量;结果表明，它们明显优于以前登革热传播模型中使用的参数。水深模型使用气候水预算方法，估计集装箱内的水分储存。水深模型的精度低于水温模型，但结果上级以前的模型。这些新的方法应该可以改善对水环境和登革热病媒影响的估计。
Two new approaches have been developed to estimate water temperatures and water depths in containers that commonly are used as breeding sites for mosquitoes, the primary; vectors of dengue viruses. These estimates are incorporated in recently developed stochastic simulation models used to describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Water temperature estimates are provided through a regression model that includes meteorological variables not previously used; results show that they are significantly better than those used in previous dengue transmission models. Water depth models use a climatic water budget approach which estimates moisture storage within containers. The water depth models are less precise than those developed for water temperature; however, results are superior to those used in previous models. These new approaches should improve estimates of the impact of water conditions an dengue vectors.