Statistical inference for seed mortality and germination with seed bank experiments
Statistical inference for seed mortality and germination with seed bank experiments
复制标题
通过种子库实验对种子死亡率和发芽率进行统计推断
DOI：
10.1002/ecy.3948
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Geber, Monica A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Siegmund, Gregor‐Fausto;Geber, Monica A.
植物种群生态学家定期通过种子袋埋藏和种子添加实验来研究土壤种子库。这些实验为人口模型提供了关键数据，但我们缺乏分析它们的标准方法。在这里，我们提出了统计模型，根据这些实验的观察结果来估计种子死亡率和发芽率。我们遵循事件历史分析的原理开发这些模型，并通过代数方法和模拟分析它们的可识别性和统计特性。我们证明，种子袋掩埋（而不是种子添加实验）可用于推断年龄依赖性死亡率和发芽率。当死亡率和发芽率不随种子年龄变化时，两个实验都会产生无偏估计，但种子袋埋藏实验更精确。然而，当合适的统计模型对死亡率和发芽率的年龄依赖性做出错误假设时，种子死亡率和发芽率估计可能不准确。我们在这里提出的统计模型和模拟可以被植物种群生态学家采用和修改，以加强对土壤种子库中种子死亡率和发芽率的推论。
Plant population ecologists regularly study soil seed banks with seed bag burial and seed addition experiments. These experiments contribute crucial data to demographic models, but we lack standard methods to analyze them. Here, we propose statistical models to estimate seed mortality and germination with observations from these experiments. We develop these models following the principles of event history analysis, and analyze their identifiability and statistical properties by algebraic methods and simulation. We demonstrate that seed bag burial, but not seed addition experiments, can be used to make inferences about age‐dependent mortality and germination. When mortality and germination do not change with seed age, both experiments produce unbiased estimates but seed bag burial experiments are more precise. However, seed mortality and germination estimates may be inaccurate when the statistical model that is fit makes incorrect assumptions about the age dependence of mortality and germination. The statistical models and simulations that we present here can be adopted and modified by plant population ecologists to strengthen inferences about seed mortality and germination in the soil seed bank.