Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts
Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts
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DOI：
10.1006/icar.2002.6910
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发表时间：
2002-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Yeomans, DK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chesley, SR;Chodas, PW;Yeomans, DK
近年来，预测近地天体未来可能撞击地球的情况已变得司空见惯，随着小行星勘测工作的不断成熟，这类探测的速度可能会加快。为了方便地比较和分类正在发现的众多潜在影响的解决方案，我们提出了一个新的危险规模，将描述一个特定的潜在影响的绝对和相对的风险。为此，我们以两种方式衡量每一事件，首先不考虑事件的时间接近程度或其相对于所谓背景威胁的重要性，然后根据在撞击之前的几年中其他物体的预期风险来衡量。这种方法主要是为了便利天文学家之间的交流，而不是为了向公众通报撞击风险。这一尺度描述了所有影响能量、概率和日期的影响，特别是在处理低于公共利益门槛的案件时，这一尺度是有用的。该量表还以自然的方式反映了情况的紧迫性，因此可以指导专家评估适合特定情况的计算和观察工作。在本文中，我们介绍了指标，我们给出了许多例子，他们的应用。这使我们能够粗略地确定各方对事件感兴趣的程度。(C)2002 Elsevier Science（美国）。
Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In order to conveniently compare and categorize the numerous potential impact solutions being discovered we propose a new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms. To this end, we measure each event in two ways, first without any consideration of the event's time proximity or its significance relative to the so-called background threat, and then in the context of the expected risk from other objects over the intervening years until the impact. This approach is designed principally to facilitate communication among astronomers, and it is not intended for public communication of impact risks. The scale characterizes impacts across all impact energies, probabilities and dates, and it is useful, in particular, when dealing with those cases which fall below the threshold of public interest. The scale also reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).