Uncertainty analysis in ship performance monitoring
Uncertainty analysis in ship performance monitoring
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.05.043
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Thompson, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aldous, L.;Smith, T.;Thompson, P.
越来越多的经济和环境激励措施促使船东和运营商开发优化运营决策的工具，特别是以减少燃料消耗和/或最大化利润为目标。实例包括真实的操作优化、维护触发和评估技术干预。业绩监测还与租船合同分析、船舶基准和更好地为政策决定提供信息有关。船上系统及其运行的系统很复杂，通常采用数据建模和分析技术来提取趋势。所有数据集和建模程序都具有固有的不确定性，为了帮助决策者，可以量化不确定性，以便充分了解决策的经济风险;不可接受的风险需要进一步投资于数据质量和数据分析技术。本文对性能测量中的不确定性来源进行了详细的分析和分类，并在“蒙特卡洛方法测量不确定性指南”的框架下，提出了一种量化船舶性能指标总体不确定性的方法。对不确定性来源进行的敏感性分析突出了每个来源的相对重要性。比较了连续监测和中午报告这两种主要的数据采集策略。(c)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
There are increasing economic and environmental incentives for ship owners and operators to develop tools to optimise operational decisions, particularly with the aim of reducing fuel consumption and/or maximising profit. Examples include real time operational optimisation, maintenance triggers and evaluating technological interventions. Performance monitoring is also relevant to charter party analysis, vessel benchmarking and to better inform policy decisions. The ship on-board systems and systems in which they operate are complex and it is common for data modelling and analysis techniques to be employed to extract trends. All datasets and modelling procedures have an inherent uncertainty and to aid the decision maker, the uncertainty can be quantified in order to fully understand the economic risk of a decision; an unacceptable risk requires further investment in data quality and data analysis techniques. This paper details and categorises the relevant sources of uncertainty in performance measurement, and presents a method to quantify the overall uncertainty in a ship performance indicator based on the framework of the "Guide to Uncertainty in Measurement using Monte Carlo Methods". A sensitivity analysis conducted on the sources of uncertainty highlights the relative importance of each. The two major data acquisition strategies, continuous monitoring and noon reported, are compared.(c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.