The Polls: America's Most Important Problems Part I: National and International
The Polls: America's Most Important Problems Part I: National and International
复制标题
民意调查：美国最重要的问题第一部分：国内和国际
DOI：
10.1086/268922
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发表时间：
1985
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Tom W. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tom W. Smith
正如伯恩斯罗珀最近指出的那样，乔治盖洛普最伟大的成就之一是通过复制问题来建立时间序列。在盖洛普收集的数百个趋势中，最重要的问题系列是独一无二的。1935年9月，盖洛普开始询问美国人民面临的最重要的问题。这条趋势线现在已经接近半个世纪，和全国民意调查本身一样古老。自1935年以来，最重要的问题项目出现在至少178次盖洛普调查中，使其成为仅次于总统受欢迎程度的第二大最常被问及的态度。这一密度不仅可以研究公众舆论的长期趋势，而且可以评估对具体事件的短期反应。也许没有其他任何一个项目能让我们对过去50年的美国历史有如此深刻的了解。最重要的问题提供了社会变革的宏观概述，从参与者的角度描述历史，并有助于定义不同的历史时期和确定转折点。盖洛普的标准用法是问：“你认为这个国家今天面临的最重要的问题是什么？（见下文，问题措辞：最重要的问题，为变化。“参考框架是整个国家，并强调国家和国际问题，而不是地方或个人问题。这个问题要求对问题进行相对排序，而不是对一般问题或某个问题的关注程度进行绝对衡量。这个问题并不表明关注的绝对程度是否随着时间的推移而改变，而是衡量问题的优先次序如何改变。除了全国最重要的问题之外，盖洛普还提出了
ONE OF George Gallup's greatest achievements, as Burns Roper noted recently, was building time series by replicating questions. Among the hundreds of trends that Gallup collected, the most important problem series is unique. Gallup started asking about the most important problem facing the American people in September 1935. The trend line is now approaching the half-century mark and is as old as national polling itself. The most important problem item has appeared in at least 178 Gallup surveys since 1935, making it the second most frequently asked attitude after presidential popularity. This density allows not only the study of long-term trends in public opinion, but also the assessment of short-term reactions to specific events. Perhaps no other single item gives us as deep an understanding of American history over the last five decades. The most important problem question provides a grand overview of social change, describes history from the perspective of the participants, and helps to define distinct historical periods and identify turning points. The standard Gallup usage asks, "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" (See below, Question Wording: Most Important Problem, for the variations.)' The frame of reference is the country as a whole and elicits mentions of national and international problems rather than of local or personal problems. The question calls for a relative ranking of problems, not an absolute measure of the level of concern about problems in general or a particular problem. The question does not indicate whether the absolute level of concern has changed over time, but measures how the priority of problems has altered. In addition to the national most important problem question Gallup has