Using Industry-Adjusted Dupont Analysis to Predict Future Profitability
Using Industry-Adjusted Dupont Analysis to Predict Future Profitability
复制标题
使用行业调整的杜邦分析来预测未来的盈利能力
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.456700
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Mark T. Soliman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mark T. Soliman
行业同行团体在财务报表分析中既是一个理论上的基准，也是一个直观的基准。然而，在现有的财务报表分析研究中，对行业调整财务比率的实践还很少见。许多关于盈利能力均值回归的学术研究都假设经济范围内的回归目标。经济理论支持使用这一目标，经验证据与这些预测一致。然而，由于各行业的结构性差异，盈利能力的某些组成部分可能不会恢复到整个经济的平均水平。对于这些组成部分，行业平均值是更好的长期目标。杜邦分析将净运营资产收益率（RNOA）分解为两个乘法组成部分：利润率和资产周转率，这两个组成部分在很大程度上都是由行业成员关系驱动的。本文探讨是否使用行业调整杜邦分析是一个有用的工具，在预测未来的变化RNOA。与以前的研究，使用经济范围内的目标，并发现这些组件是没有用的预测，我发现，这些组件是信息时，行业调整，使用它们有助于预测未来的变化RNOA在样本内和样本外的预测测试。
Industry peer groups serve as both a theoretical and an intuitive benchmark in financial statement analysis. However, the practice of industry-adjusting financial ratios is sparse in existing financial statement analysis research. Much of the academic research on the mean reversion of profitability assumes economy-wide reversion targets. Economic theory supports the use of this target and empirical evidence is consistent with these predictions. However, some components of profitability may not revert to economy-wide averages because of structural differences across industries. For these components, industry averages serve as better long-term targets. DuPont analysis decomposes return-on-net-operating assets (RNOA) into two multiplicative components: profit margin and asset turnover, both of which are largely driven by industry membership. This paper investigates whether using industry-adjusted DuPont analysis is a useful tool in predicting future changes in RNOA. In contrast to prior research that used economy-wide targets and finds that these components are not useful in forecasting, I find that these components are informative when industry-adjusted and that using them helps predict future changes in RNOA in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests.