Evaluation of liquefaction probability of earth-fill dam over next 50 years using geostatistical method based on CPT
Evaluation of liquefaction probability of earth-fill dam over next 50 years using geostatistical method based on CPT
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DOI：
10.1016/j.sandf.2019.08.002
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kazunari Imaide;S. Nishimura;T. Shibata;T. Shuku;A. Murakami;K. Fujisawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kazunari Imaide;S. Nishimura;T. Shibata;T. Shuku;A. Murakami;K. Fujisawa
本文提出了一种利用静力触探（CPT）实测值的地质统计学方法来评估土坝未来50年液化概率的方法。特别是，本文讨论了一个新的程序，评估液化概率的基础上CPTs。虽然日本标准中要求用细粒含量、Fc和N值来评估液化风险，但试验数据的数量不足以进行统计建模。在本文中，Fc和N值直接源自CPT。Fc和N值的统计建模过程是本研究的独特之处。由于静力触探可以在短时间内进行，特别是在水平方向上，可以确定地质统计参数，地质统计模拟方法适用于评估液化概率。此外，由于研究场地地震荷载的频率会影响液化概率，因此应适当评估地震危险性。一个说明性的例子，评估在日本的土坝的液化概率，展示了所提出的方法的能力。最后，计算了未来50年大坝液化概率的空间平均值。所提出的程序被证实工作以及实际的设计问题。
A method for evaluating the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam over the next 50 years is presented through the use of a geostatistical method for the measured values from cone penetration tests (CPTs). In particular, this paper discusses a new procedure for evaluating the liquefaction probability based on CPTs. Although the fines content,Fc, and theN-value are required in the Japanese standards to evaluate the liquefaction risk, the number of test data is not enough for the statistical modeling. Herein,Fcand theN-value are derived directly from CPTs. The statistical modeling procedure forFcand theN-value is the unique point of this study. Since CPTs can be conducted with short intervals, especially in the horizontal direction, the geostatistical parameters can be determined, and the geostatistical simulation method is applicable for evaluating the liquefaction probability. In addition, since the frequency of the seismic load at the studied site will affect the liquefaction probability, the seismic hazard should be evaluated properly. An illustrative example, assessing the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Finally, the spatial average of the liquefaction probability of the dam over the next 50 years is calculated. The proposed procedure is confirmed to work well for actual design problems.