Inter-annual associations between precipitation and human incidence of West Nile virus in the United States
Inter-annual associations between precipitation and human incidence of West Nile virus in the United States
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DOI：
10.1089/vbz.2006.0590
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发表时间：
2007-09-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Chase, Jonathan M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Landesman, William J.;Allan, Brian F.;Chase, Jonathan M.
如果蚊子受到幼虫栖息地的限制，高于平均水平的降水量可能会导致蚊子爆发。另一方面，最近的生态研究表明，干旱事件可能导致次年由于食物网结构的变化而导致蚊子爆发。通过这两种机制，这些蚊子爆发可能导致最近美国爆发的西尼罗河病毒（WNV）人间病例。利用2002-2004年县级降水量和人类西尼罗河病毒发病率数据，我们测试了年内和年间高于和低于平均降雨量对人群中西尼罗河病毒流行的影响。我们发现的证据表明，人类西尼罗河病毒的发病率与前一年的年降水量密切相关。在人类爆发西尼罗河病毒之前，前一年美国东部的降雨量高于平均水平，而美国西部的降雨量低于平均水平。虽然没有直接的机制，可以确定从这项研究中，我们假设，蚊子媒介的生态差异可能是负责降水和西尼罗河病毒爆发之间的美国东部和西部的相反关系。
Higher-than-average precipitation levels may cause mosquito outbreaks if mosquitoes are limited by larval habitat availability. Alternatively, recent ecological research suggests that drought events can lead to mosquito outbreaks the following year due to changes in food web structure. By either mechanism, these mosquito outbreaks may contribute to human cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the recent United States outbreak. Using county-level precipitation and human WNV incidence data (2002-2004), we tested the impacts of above and below-average rainfall on the prevalence of WNV in human populations both within and between years. We found evidence that human WNV incidence is most strongly associated with annual precipitation from the preceding year. Human outbreaks of WNV are preceded by above-average rainfall in the eastern United States and below-average rainfall in the western United States in the prior year. While no direct mechanism may be determined from this study, we hypothesize that differences in the ecology of mosquito vectors may be responsible for the opposite relationships between precipitation and WNV outbreaks between the eastern and western United States.