A bottom-up approach for estimating the economic potential of the rooftop solar photovoltaic system considering the spatial and temporal diversity
A bottom-up approach for estimating the economic potential of the rooftop solar photovoltaic system considering the spatial and temporal diversity
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.176
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发表时间：
2018-12-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Kim, Jimin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee, Minhyun;Hong, Taehoon;Kim, Jimin
为了在城市环境中成功地部署分布式太阳能发电，必须研究区域内屋顶太阳能光伏(PV)系统的发电潜力。尽管对屋顶太阳能光伏潜力有不同的解释，但以前的大多数研究都集中在估计技术潜力上，而没有考虑经济可行性和市场动态。因此，有必要估计屋顶太阳能光伏系统的经济潜力，以量化区域内经济上可行的太阳能光伏能源的数量，并评估影响市场准入的各种因素的影响。为此，本研究提出了一种自下而上的评估屋顶太阳能光伏系统经济潜力的方法，该方法考虑了采用年份的市场动态。据此，对2008年至2016年韩国首尔江南区屋顶太阳能光伏系统的经济潜力进行了估算。在发电量方面，据分析，截至2016年，江南区太阳能光伏系统的实际装机容量仅为屋顶太阳能光伏系统最大经济潜力(即电力业务的经济潜力)的3%，显示出额外采用屋顶太阳能光伏系统的巨大潜力。在发电量方面，显示截至2016年，屋顶太阳能光伏系统的年经济潜力最高可提供江南区年用电量的4.48%，而实际安装的太阳能光伏系统的年发电量仅能提供0.12%的电力。考虑到太阳能光伏技术的空间和时间多样性，本研究具有重大贡献，从技术潜力到经济潜力，向屋顶太阳能光伏潜力估算过程又迈进了一步。
To successfully deploy distributed solar generation in urban environments, it is essential to investigate the potential to generate electricity from the rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) system within a region. While various interpretations are possible for the rooftop solar PV potential, most of the previous studies focused on estimating the technical potential, not considering the economic viability and market dynamics. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the economic potential of the rooftop solar PV system to quantify the amount of economically viable solar PV energy within a region and to evaluate the impact of the various factors affecting market access. Towards this end, this study proposed a bottom-up approach for estimating the economic potential of the rooftop solar PV system considering the market dynamics by adoption year. Accordingly, the economic potential of the rooftop solar PV system was estimated for the Gangnam district in Seoul, South Korea from 2008 to 2016. In terms of power capacity, it was analyzed that as of 2016, the actual installed capacity of the solar PV system in the Gangnam district was only 3% of the maximum economic potential of the rooftop solar PV system (i.e., economic potential for electricity business purposes), showing a high potential for additional rooftop solar PV adoption. In terms of electricity generation, it was shown that as of 2016, the annual economic potential of the rooftop solar PV system could supply up to 4.48% of the annual electricity consumption in the Gangnam district, while only 0.12% could be supplied from the annual electricity generation of the actual installed solar PV system. This study has significant contributions in that it took one step farther towards the rooftop solar PV potential estimation process, from the technical potential to the economic potential, considering the spatial and temporal diversity of the solar PV technology.