The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s
The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s
复制标题
20 世纪 90 年代美国劳动力市场的高压
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Krueger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lawrence F. Katz;A. Krueger
本文考察了20世纪90年代劳动力市场变化对失业率下降的影响。第一部分概述了总体失业趋势、通货膨胀以及价格和工资菲利普斯曲线。第二部分研究人口变化对失业率的影响。第三部分研究了自1985年以来入狱或入狱的男性人数增加150%对失业率的影响。第四部分考察了不断发展的劳动力市场中介（即失业保险制度的工人特征分析和临时帮助行业的增长）对失业率的影响。第五部分探讨了工人的议价能力是否变弱了，允许低失业率和只有适度的工资压力，因为工人的工作焦虑，工会成员的减少，或竞争压力的增加。最后一节探讨了一代人以来最紧张的劳动力市场对贫困的影响。我们的主要发现是，劳动力年龄结构的变化，男性监狱人口的增长，以及更推测的是，临时帮助部门的崛起，是20世纪90年代末低失业率背后的主要劳动力市场力量。
This paper examines the impact of selected labor market changes on the decline in the unemployment rate in the 1990s. The first section provides an overview of aggregate unemployment trends, inflation, and price and wage Phillips curves. The second section examines the effect of demographic changes on the unemployment rate. The third section examines the impact of the 150 percent increase in the number of men in jail or prison since 1985 on the unemployment rate. The fourth section examines the impact of evolving labor market intermediaries (namely worker profiling by the Unemployment Insurance system and the growth of the temporary help industry) on the unemployment rate. The fifth section explores whether worker bargaining power has become weaker, allowing for low unemployment and only modest wage pressure, because of worker job anxiety, the decline in union membership, or increased competitive pressures. The final section examines the impact of the tightest labor market in a generation on poverty. Our main findings are that changes in the age structure of the labor force, the growth of the male prison population, and, more speculatively, the rise of the temporary help sector, are the main labor market forces behind the low unemployment rate in the late 1990s.