Why Have the Labour Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased Since the Mid-1990 s ?
Why Have the Labour Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased Since the Mid-1990 s ?
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为什么自 20 世纪 90 年代中期以来，老年男性的劳动力参与率有所上升？
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发表时间：
2007
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通讯作者：
Tammy Schirle
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作者：
Tammy Schirle
本文件试图解释自1990年代中期以来观察到的老年男子劳动参与率大幅上升的现象。利用美国3月份当前人口调查、加拿大劳动力调查和英国劳动力调查的数据，我调查了一种假设，即丈夫将妻子的空闲时间视为对他们年长时自己空闲时间的补充。我利用推动老年妇女参与率最近上升的队列效应来确定妻子的参与决定对其丈夫的参与决定的影响。鉴于休闲时间的这种互补性，老年男子参与率的增加在很大程度上可以解释为对最近老年妇女参加劳动力的增加的反应。Dinardo，Fortin和Lemieux(1996)的方法被用来分解老年已婚男性参与率的变化，表明妻子参与率的增加可以解释美国最近参与率增加的大约四分之一，加拿大最近参与率增加的近一半，以及英国最近参与率增加的大约三分之一。老年男性的教育程度也是解释最近参与率增加的一个重要因素，但不能指望它会进一步推动参与率的增加。相比之下，预计未来十年老年妻子参与率的增加将进一步推动老年男性参与率的上升。我要感谢Nicole Fortin、Thomas Lemieux、Kevin Milligan，以及不列颠哥伦比亚大学经验主义午餐系列的参与者，感谢他们的评论和建议。本文中的部分统计分析依赖于加拿大统计局通过不列颠哥伦比亚省大学间研究数据中心提供的微观数据。本研究报告反映的是作者的观点，并不反映加拿大统计局的观点。邮编：N2L 3C5电子邮件：tschirle@wlu.ca电话：+1(519)884-0710转3849
This paper seeks to explain the substantial increases in older men’s labour force participation rates that have been observed since the mid-1990s. Using data from the U.S. March Current Population Survey, the Canadian Labour Force Survey, and the U.K. Labour Force Survey, I investigate the hypothesis that husbands treat the leisure time of their wives as complementary to their own leisure at older ages. I exploit the cohort effects driving recent increases in older women’s participation rates to identify the effect of a wife’s participation decision on her husband’s participation decision. Given this complementarity in leisure time, a large portion of the increase in older men’s participation rates may be explained as a response to the recent increases in older women’s participation in the labour force. The methodology of Dinardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996) is used to decompose the changes in older married men’s participation rates, demonstrating that increases in wives’ participation in the labour force can explain roughly one quarter of the recent increase in participation in the U.S., almost one half of the recent increase in participation in Canada, and roughly one third of the recent increase in the U.K. Older men’s educational attainment is also an important factor explaining recent increases in participation, yet cannot be expected to drive further increases in participation rates. In contrast, expected increases in older wives’ participation over the next decade are expected to drive further increases in older men’s participation rates. I would like to thank Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux, Kevin Milligan, and participants of the Empirical lunch series at the University of British Columbia for their comments and suggestions. Portions of the statistical analysis in this paper rely on Statistics Canada microdata, made available through the British Columbia Inter-University Research Data Centre. This study reflects the views of the author and does not reflect the views of Statistics Canada. Correspondence Tammy Schirle, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Ave W., Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3C5 E-mail: tschirle@wlu.ca Tel: +1 (519) 884-0710 ext.3849