Infections and Elections
Infections and Elections
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感染与选举
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Schaller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alec T. Beall;Marlise K. Hofer;M. Schaller
在本文报道的研究中，我们对选前投票数据进行了纵向分析，以测试埃博拉疫情是否能预测2014年美国联邦选举前的投票意向。对435个众议院选举的全国舆论调查和34个参议院选举的州舆论调查进行了分析。分析比较了埃博拉爆发前后的投票意向，并评估了“埃博拉”一词的互联网搜索活动与投票意向之间的相关性。结果显示：(a)埃博拉的心理显著性与投票给共和党候选人的意愿增加有关，(b)这种影响主要发生在以支持共和党候选人的规范为特征的州（这种影响没有发生在规范支持民主党候选人的州）。辅助分析解决了几个解释性问题。总的来说，这些结果表明，疾病爆发可能会以两种不同的心理方式影响选民的行为：增加倾向于投票给政治上保守的候选人，增加倾向于顺应民意。
In the studies reported here, we conducted longitudinal analyses of preelection polling data to test whether an Ebola outbreak predicted voting intentions preceding the 2014 U.S. federal elections. Analyses were conducted on nationwide polls pertaining to 435 House of Representatives elections and on state-specific polls pertaining to 34 Senate elections. Analyses compared voting intentions before and after the initial Ebola outbreak and assessed correlations between Internet search activity for the term “Ebola” and voting intentions. Results revealed that (a) the psychological salience of Ebola was associated with increased intention to vote for Republican candidates and (b) this effect occurred primarily in states characterized by norms favoring Republican Party candidates (the effect did not occur in states with norms favoring Democratic Party candidates). Ancillary analyses addressed several interpretational issues. Overall, these results suggest that disease outbreaks may influence voter behavior in two psychologically distinct ways: increased inclination to vote for politically conservative candidates and increased inclination to conform to popular opinion.