Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years.
Changing trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 and its predicted level in 25 years.
复制标题
1990 - 2017年中国食管癌疾病负担变化趋势及25年预测水平
作者：
Li S;Chen H;Man J;Zhang T;Yin X;He Q;Yang X;Lu M
世界上近一半的食管癌病例发生在中国，但在过去几十年或不久的将来，中国的相应负担尚未估计。1990年至2017年中国食管癌的发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DADs）率数据摘自2017年全球疾病负担研究。为了反映疾病负担的趋势，我们计算了1990年至2017年中国这三种结局的年龄标准化率的估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）。食管癌的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从1990年的19.38/10万下降到2017年的12.23/10万，EAPC为-2.53（95%CI：-2.90，-2.16），但食管癌病例数从164，473例增加到234，624例。在研究期间，女性食管癌的年龄标准化发病率始终低于男性，女性的下降趋势比男性更明显。男性最常见的风险因素是吸烟和饮酒，而女性最常见的风险因素是水果含量低和体重指数（BMI）高。预计在未来25年内，食管癌的新发病例和死亡人数将增加约1.5倍。尽管食管癌的年龄标准化负担一直在下降，但在过去30年中，中国食管癌新发病例和死亡人数有所增加，并且在不久的将来还会继续增加。因此，应采取国家政策，促进预防和管理已知的风险因素，特别是吸烟和热量摄入过多。尽管食管癌的年龄标准化负担一直在下降，但在过去30年中，中国食管癌新发病例和死亡人数有所增加，并且在不久的将来还会继续增加。因此，应采取国家政策，促进预防和管理已知的风险因素，特别是吸烟和热量摄入过多。
Nearly half of the cases of esophageal cancer in the world were in China, but the corresponding burden in China has not been estimated for the past decades or for the near future. Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) rates owing to esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To reflect the trend in the disease burden, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age‐standardized rates of these three outcomes in China from 1990 to 2017. The age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for esophageal cancer decreased from 19.38/100,000 in 1990 to 12.23/100,000 in 2017, with an EAPC of −2.53 (95%CI: −2.90, −2.16), but the number of cases of esophageal cancer increased from 164,473 to 234,624. The age‐standardized rates of esophageal cancer in females were always lower than they were in males during the study period, and there was a downward trend that was more pronounced among females than males. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while the most common risk factors for females were a diet low in fruits and a high body mass index (BMI). New cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer are predicted to increase by about 1.5 times in the coming 25 years. Although the age‐standardized burden of esophageal cancer has been declining, the number of new cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer have increased in China over the past 30 years, and they will continue to increase in the near future. Hence, national policies should be adopted to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors for it, especially smoking and excessive caloric intake. Although the age‐standardized burden of esophageal cancer has been declining, the number of new cases of, and deaths from esophageal cancer have increased in China over the past 30 years, and they will continue to increase in the near future. Hence, national policies should be adopted to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors for it, especially smoking and excessive caloric intake.
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