Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO
Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO
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DOI：
10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
R. Boynton;M. Balikhin;S. Billings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Boynton;M. Balikhin;S. Billings
摘要。建立了带外源输入的多输入单输出（MISO）非线性自回归移动平均（NARMAX）模型，用于预测地球静止轨道（GEO）上> 0.8 MeV和> 2mev的电子通量。NARMAX算法能够从输入输出数据中识别出广泛的非线性系统的数学模型。这些模式采用太阳风参数作为输入，提供次日平均电子通量的估计，即1天的预报。所确定的模型对>.8 MeV和bbb2mev的电子通量都提供了可靠的预测，并且能够对卫星系统的电子通量何时达到危险的高水平提供实时警告。这些模型被命名为SNB3GEO > 0.8和> 2 MeV的电子通量模型，已经在http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html上实现。
Abstract. Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input–output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB3GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html .