Capacity of Thailand to contain an emerging influenza pandemic.
Capacity of Thailand to contain an emerging influenza pandemic.
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1503.080872
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发表时间：
2009-03
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Coker R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Putthasri W;Lertiendumrong J;Chompook P;Tangcharoensathien V;Coker R
在基础设施、人员和物资以及监测能力方面存在差距，无法满足各种大流行情况的需要。东南亚可能是下一次流感大流行的中心。为了确定泰国的卫生系统资源是否足以遏制新出现的流行病，我们绘制了76个省的卫生系统资源图。我们使用了聚集性病例的3种流行前情景，并确定了资源需求、可用性和缺口。我们将这一分析扩展到一个温和的大流行的场景，并假设需要相同的临床护理标准。我们发现，差距存在于许多资源类别，即使在很少发生的情况下。如果发生严重的大流行病，这种差距可能会很大。这些差距存在于基础设施、人员和物资以及监测能力方面。政策制定者必须确定这种资源缺口是否能够切实弥合，最好是在大流行病发生之前。或者，必须对稀缺资源的分配、护理标准和大流行期间的优先事项设定做出明确的假设。
Gaps exist in infrastructure, personnel and materials, and surveillance capacity to meet needs of various pandemic scenarios. Southeast Asia will likely be the epicenter of the next influenza pandemic. To determine whether health system resources in Thailand are sufficient to contain an emerging pandemic, we mapped health system resources in 76 provinces. We used 3 prepandemic scenarios of clustered cases and determined resource needs, availability, and gaps. We extended this analysis to a scenario of a modest pandemic and assumed that the same standards of clinical care would be required. We found that gaps exist in many resource categories, even under scenarios in which few cases occur. Such gaps are likely to be profound if a severe pandemic occurs. These gaps exist in infrastructure, personnel and materials, and surveillance capacity. Policy makers must determine whether such resource gaps can realistically be closed, ideally before a pandemic occurs. Alternatively, explicit assumptions must be made regarding allocation of scarce resources, standards of care, and priority setting during a pandemic.