Predicting the rate of range expansion of an invasive alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) using a stochastic spatio-temporal model
Predicting the rate of range expansion of an invasive alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) using a stochastic spatio-temporal model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2010.02.030
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Washitani, Izumi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kadoya, Taku;Washitani, Izumi
为了制定有效的战略来管理生物入侵，重要的是要了解并能够预测入侵和范围扩展的模式，特别是传播速度和控制这一速度的因素。为了预测外来熊蜂（熊蜂terrestris）在日本北海道入侵的空间动态，我们明确构建了一个随机时空模型，将移民和建立过程。使用贝叶斯方法，我们参数化的模型的基础上收集的公民志愿者的时空存在/不存在的数据，并使用该模型来预测几种管理策略下的大黄蜂的近期传播的控制。B的射程扩展动力学。陆生植物受土地利用方式（林地比例）和气候（积雪深度）两个方面的环境异质性影响显著。在几种空间管理策略中，抑制外围（边缘）殖民地将是减少大黄蜂传播的最有效策略，无论努力程度如何，都会显着减缓大黄蜂在未来30年的范围扩张。在本研究中采用的建模方法将是广泛有用的研究现实世界中的生物入侵的问题，其中预测的进展，入侵，即使在不久的将来，迫切需要支持有效的空间管理选项和对策。此外，该模型表明，纳入环境异质性的动态是生物入侵期间预测和风险评估的基本要求，特别是在区域和全球范围内的环境最近迅速变化的背景下。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
To develop effective strategies for managing biological invasions, it is important to understand and be able to predict patterns of invasion and range expansion, and particularly the rate of spread and factors controlling this rate. To predict the spatial dynamics of invasion by an alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) in Hokkaido, Japan, we explicitly constructed a stochastic spatio-temporal model that incorporates immigration and establishment processes. Using a Bayesian approach, we parameterized the model based on spatio-temporal presence/absence data collected by citizen volunteers and used the model to predict control of the near-future spread of the bumblebee under several management strategies. The range expansion dynamics of B. terrestris were significantly negatively affected by two aspects of environmental heterogeneity: the land-use pattern (the proportion of woodland) and climate (the snow depth). Of the several spatial management strategies, suppressing the outlying (edge) colonies would be the most efficient strategy to reduce the bumblebee's spread, irrespective of the level of effort, and would significantly slow the bumblebee's range expansion during the next 30 years. The modeling approach employed in the present study will be broadly useful for studying real-world biological invasion problems, for which prediction of the progress of an invasion, even in the very near future, is urgently needed to support effective spatial management options and countermeasures. In addition, the model demonstrates that incorporating the dynamics of environmental heterogeneity is a fundamental requirement for prediction and risk assessment during biological invasions, especially in the context of recent rapid changes in the environment at regional and global scales. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.