Integrating a multivariate extreme value method within a system flood risk analysis model
Integrating a multivariate extreme value method within a system flood risk analysis model
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DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12069
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发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
洪水的有效管理需要能够量化洪水风险的模型。洪灾风险的量化既包括洪灾概率的量化，也包括洪灾后果的量化。现代洪水风险模型考虑了极端水力负荷事件的概率，还包括防洪基础设施性能及其相关可靠性的概率表示。洪水事件的时空变异性使得防洪工程水力荷载条件的概率表示变得复杂。在英格兰和威尔士广泛使用的系统方法中，简化了与洪水事件的空间相关性有关的假设。最近的研究表明，使用改进的多变量极值方法来确定洪水风险分析模型的水力荷载条件是有好处的。本文描述了一种改进的建模系统的开发，该系统通过结合多变量极值模型来增强目前实际应用的基于系统的风险分析模型。改进后的系统已经在英格兰西北部的一个案例研究现场进行了展示。
Effective management of flooding requires models that are capable of quantifying flood risk. Quantification of flood risk involves both the quantification of probabilities of flooding and the associated consequences. Modern flood risk models account for the probabilities of extreme hydraulic loading events and also include a probabilistic representation of the performance of flood defence infrastructure and its associated reliability. The spatial and temporal variability of flood events makes probabilistic representation of the hydraulic loading conditions on the flood defences complex. In the system method used widely within England and Wales, simplifying assumptions relating to the spatial dependence of flood events are made. Recent research has shown the benefits of using improved multivariate extreme value methods to define the hydraulic loading conditions for flood risk analysis models. This paper describes the development of an improved modelling system that enhances the systems‐based risk analysis model currently applied in practice, through the incorporation of a multivariate extreme value model. The improved system has been presented on a case study site in the North West of England.