Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years
Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo2513
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Guentner, Andreas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Farinotti, Daniel;Longuevergne, Laurent;Guentner, Andreas
中亚地区的人口严重依赖雪和冰川融化的水供应。据报告，过去十年来，该地区主要山脉天山的冰川发生了变化。然而，重建在更长的时间，几十年的时间尺度和这些变化的机制，都需要可靠的未来预测没有很好的约束。在这里，我们使用基于卫星重力测量、激光测高和冰川学建模的三种独立方法来估计天山冰川总质量变化。从三种方法的结果一致，并允许我们重建一个一致的时间序列的年度质量变化，在过去的50年中，在个别冰川的分辨率。我们检测到质量变化的显着空间和时间变异性。我们估计，从1961年到2012年，冰川总面积和总质量分别减少了18 +/- 6%和27 +/-15%。这些数值相当于总面积损失2，960 +/-1，030 km（2），平均冰川质量变化率为-5.4 +/- 2.8 Gt yr（-1）。我们认为，这种下降主要是由夏季融化，并可能与一般气候变暖和北大西洋和北太平洋环流变率的综合影响。
Populations in Central Asia are heavily dependent on snow and glacier melt for their water supplies. Changes to the glaciers in the main mountain range in this region, the Tien Shan, have been reported over the past decade. However, reconstructions over longer, multi-decadal timescales and the mechanisms underlying these variations-both required for reliable future projections-are not well constrained. Here we use three ensembles of independent approaches based on satellite gravimetry, laser altimetry, and glaciological modelling to estimate the total glacier mass change in the Tien Shan. Results from the three approaches agree well, and allow us to reconstruct a consistent time series of annual mass changes for the past 50 years at the resolution of individual glaciers. We detect marked spatial and temporal variability in mass changes. We estimate the overall decrease in total glacier area and mass from 1961 to 2012 to be 18 +/- 6% and 27 +/- 15%, respectively. These values correspond to a total area loss of 2,960 +/- 1,030 km(2), and an average glacier mass-change rate of -5.4 +/- 2.8 Gt yr(-1). We suggest that the decline is driven primarily by summer melt and, possibly, linked to the combined effects of general climatic warming and circulation variability over the north Atlantic and north Pacific.