The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers
The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.01.004
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wither, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clemens, Jeffrey;Wither, Michael
我们估计了最低工资对大衰退后低技能个人就业和收入轨迹的影响。我们的方法利用了我们分析的数据的两个维度。首先，我们将2007年至2009年联邦最低工资增长完全约束的州的个人与非联邦最低工资增长的州的个人进行比较。其次，我们利用不同技能组之间最低工资水平的差异，将样本分为“目标”组和“州内控制”组。使用2008年收入和计划参与度调查小组，我们发现具有约束力的最低工资增长对目标工人的就业和收入增长产生了显著的负面影响。尽管我们的研究设计有重要的局限性，但我们的估计是稳健的，可以采用一系列替代策略来构建我们的分析样本，并考虑到大衰退潜在严重性在各州的差异。总体而言，我们的估计表明，这一时期的最低工资增长使受联邦最低工资增长约束的州的总就业率至少下降了0.5个百分点。因为我们的估计相对于从过去的研究中推断出来的东西是大的，所以我们强调了我们分析的历史事件的相关性。(C)2019爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
We estimate the minimum wage's effects on low-skilled individuals' employment and income trajectories following the Great Recession. Our approach exploits two dimensions of the data we analyze. First, we compare individuals in states that were fully bound by the 2007 to 2009 increases in the federal minimum wage to individuals in states that were not. Second, we use variation in the minimum wage's bite across skill groups to separate our samples into "target" and "within-state control" groups. Using the 2008 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we find that binding minimum wage increases had significant, negative effects on the employment and income growth of targeted workers. Although there are important limitations to our research designs, our estimates are robust to adopting a range of alternative strategies to construct our analysis samples and to account for variation in the Great Recession's underlying severity across states. In aggregate, our estimates suggest that this period's minimum wage increases reduced aggregate employment rates by at least half of a percentage point in states that were bound by the federal minimum wage increases. Because our estimates are large relative to what one would infer from past research, we emphasize the relevance of the historical episode we analyze. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.