September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2203
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
D. Schröder;D. Feltham;D. Flocco;M. Tsamados
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Schröder;D. Feltham;D. Flocco;M. Tsamados
北极9月海冰面积从20世纪90年代的约700万平方公里减少到过去7年中的5年不到500万平方公里，2012年的最低纪录为360万平方公里。这种下降的强度大于科学界的预期，其原因尚不完全清楚，其模拟对现有气候模型来说是一个持续的挑战。随着北极海洋活动的不断增加，对北极夏季海冰的预测提出了迫切的需求。以前的尝试在冰的范围的季节性预测是有限的技能，。然而，在这里，我们表明，北极海冰最小可以准确地预测春季融化池面积。我们发现春季池塘部分和9月海冰范围之间有很强的相关性。这是由一个正反馈机制解释：更多的池塘减少的CO2;较低的CO2导致更多的融化;更多的融化增加池塘分数。我们的研究结果有助于解释过去十年北极海冰减少的加速。包括我们的新的融化池模型有望提高北极地区及其他地区未来预测和气候模型的技能。
The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2in 2012 (ref. ). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models,. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill,,,,. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond.