The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
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DOI：
10.1353/eca.2017.0015
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发表时间：
2017-09-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Passari, Evgenia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Algan, Yann;Guriev, Sergei;Passari, Evgenia
我们研究了大衰退对反建制政党投票的影响，以及对一般信任和政治态度的影响，使用欧洲各地的区域数据。我们发现，失业率上升与非主流政党（尤其是民粹主义政党）的投票之间存在密切关系。此外，失业率的增加与对国家和欧洲政治机构的信任度的下降是同步的，尽管我们发现失业对人际信任的影响很弱或没有影响。失业和对移民的态度之间的相关性是沉默的，特别是他们的文化影响。为了探索因果关系，我们提取了危机前经济结构所解释的失业增加的成分，特别是建筑业在地区增加值中的份额，这与危机前的积累和危机的爆发密切相关。我们的研究结果表明，危机驱动的经济不安全感是民粹主义和政治不信任的实质性决定因素。
We study the implications of the Great Recession for voting for antiestablishment parties, as well as for general trust and political attitudes, using regional data across Europe. We find a strong relationship between increases in unemployment and voting for nonmainstream parties, especially populist ones. Moreover, unemployment increases in tandem with declining trust toward national and European political institutions, though we find only weak or no effects of unemployment on interpersonal trust. The correlation between unemployment and attitudes toward immigrants is muted, especially for their cultural impact. To explore causality, we extract the component of increases in unemployment explained by the precrisis structure of the economy, in particular the share of construction in regional value added, which is strongly related both to the buildup preceding and the bursting of the crisis. Our results imply that crisis- driven economic insecurity is a substantial determinant of populism and political distrust.