A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain
A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain
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因果链的巧合分析
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发表时间：
2014
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通讯作者：
R. Epple
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作者：
Michael Baumgartner;R. Epple
本文将Baumgartner（2009 a）提出的因果分析的布尔方法--重合分析（CNA）应用于2009年瑞士尖塔投票的结构数据。CNA与定性比较分析（QCA）（Ragin 2008）有关，但与后者相反，CNA并不通过Quine-McCain key优化来最小化充分必要条件，而是基于自己定制的优化算法。后者极大地促进了数据分析，其特征在于最终结果的条件之间的链式因果依赖关系，这可以在瑞士尖塔投票的数据中找到。除了提供一个模型的因果结构背后的瑞士尖塔投票，我们表明，CNA的数据是更可取的QCA。
This article applies coincidence analysis (CNA), a Boolean method of causal analysis presented in Baumgartner (2009a), to configurational data on the Swiss minaret vote of 2009. CNA is related to qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) (Ragin 2008), but contrary to the latter does not minimize sufficient and necessary conditions by means of Quine–McCluskey optimization, but based on its own custom built optimization algorithm. The latter greatly facilitates the analysis of data featuring chain-like causal dependencies among the conditions of an ultimate outcome—as can be found in the data on the Swiss minaret vote. Apart from providing a model of the causal structure behind the Swiss minaret vote, we show that a CNA of that data is preferable over a QCA.