Trends in Education-Specific Life Expectancy, Data Quality, and Shifting Education Distributions: A Note on Recent Research
Trends in Education-Specific Life Expectancy, Data Quality, and Shifting Education Distributions: A Note on Recent Research
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-017-0574-2
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Hendi, Arun S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hendi, Arun S.
最近的几篇文章报道了关于预期寿命的教育差异的相互矛盾的结论，部分原因是使用了不可靠的数据，受到先前报道的分子-分母偏差的影响，其范围在20%到40%之间。本文使用来自国家健康访谈调查的更可靠的数据，介绍了美国教育对预期寿命和寿命变化的估计。与文献中先前的结论相反，我发现自1990年以来，除了受过高中以下教育的非西班牙裔白人女性外，所有受教育种族性别群体的预期寿命都有所增加或停滞不前；白人高中毕业生的预期寿命大幅增加，黑人女高中毕业生的预期寿命增幅较小；高中毕业生的寿命差异没有明显增加；寿命差异在解释死亡率的教育梯度方面发挥的作用非常有限。我还讨论了教育扩张在推动未来死亡率梯度变化方面可能发挥的关键作用。由于教育分布的变化，在特定教育的综合队列中，年龄较大的群体比年龄较小的群体受到的负面选择要少。因此，我们可以预期，受过高中或更低教育的人的死亡率更集中在更年轻的年龄，这将反映在这一群体的寿命变异性增加上。未来对死亡率教育梯度的研究应使用更可靠的数据，并应注意教育分布变化的影响。
Several recent articles have reported conflicting conclusions about educational differences in life expectancy, and this is partly due to the use of unreliable data subject to a numerator-denominator bias previously reported as ranging from 20 % to 40 %. This article presents estimates of life expectancy and lifespan variation by education in the United States using more reliable data from the National Health Interview Survey. Contrary to prior conclusions in the literature, I find that life expectancy increased or stagnated since 1990 among all education-race-sex groups except for non-Hispanic white women with less than a high school education; there has been a robust increase in life expectancy among white high school graduates and a smaller increase among black female high school graduates; lifespan variation did not increase appreciably among high school graduates; and lifespan variation plays a very limited role in explaining educational gradients in mortality. I also discuss the key role that educational expansion may play in driving future changes in mortality gradients. Because of shifting education distributions, within an education-specific synthetic cohort, older age groups are less negatively selected than younger age groups. We could thus expect a greater concentration of mortality at younger ages among people with a high school education or less, which would be reflected in increasing lifespan variability for this group. Future studies of educational gradients in mortality should use more reliable data and should be mindful of the effects of shifting education distributions.