Modeling the Effects of E-cigarettes on Smoking Behavior: Implications for Future Adult Smoking Prevalence.
Modeling the Effects of E-cigarettes on Smoking Behavior: Implications for Future Adult Smoking Prevalence.
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DOI：
10.1097/ede.0000000000000497
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发表时间：
2016-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Meza R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cherng ST;Tam J;Christine PJ;Meza R
近年来，电子烟的使用迅速增加。鉴于电子烟使用对吸烟行为的未知影响，电子烟监管已成为相当大的争议的主题。在缺乏记录电子烟使用对吸烟行为和人群吸烟结果的长期影响的纵向数据的情况下，计算模型可以指导未来的实证研究，并提供电子烟使用对吸烟率随时间推移可能产生的影响的见解。基于代理人的模型，通过吸烟状态和电子烟对吸烟开始和戒烟的影响来检查电子烟使用的假设场景。如果电子烟使个人戒烟概率增加20%，该模型估计，与基线模型（无影响）结果相比，到2060年吸烟率将降低6%。相比之下，从不吸烟者的电子烟使用率必须从目前的估计值大幅上升，电子烟使吸烟开始率相对于基线模型估计值增加200%以上，以便到2060年实现吸烟率相应增加6%。根据目前对吸烟状态下电子烟使用模式的了解以及当前吸烟者中电子烟使用的高度集中，电子烟对戒烟的模拟影响相对于其对吸烟开始的影响对吸烟流行率产生了更大的变化。
Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased rapidly in recent years. Given the unknown effects of e-cigarette use on cigarette smoking behaviors, e-cigarette regulation has become the subject of considerable controversy. In the absence of longitudinal data documenting the long-term effects of e-cigarette use on smoking behavior and population smoking outcomes, computational models can guide future empirical research and provide insights into the possible effects of e-cigarette use on smoking prevalence over time. Agent-based model examining hypothetical scenarios of e-cigarette use by smoking status and e-cigarette effects on smoking initiation and smoking cessation. If e-cigarettes increase individual-level smoking cessation probabilities by 20%, the model estimates a 6% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2060 compared to baseline model (no effects) outcomes. In contrast, e-cigarette use prevalence among never smokers would have to rise dramatically from current estimates, with e-cigarettes increasing smoking initiation by more than 200% relative to baseline model estimates in order to achieve a corresponding 6% increase in smoking prevalence by 2060. Based on current knowledge of the patterns of e-cigarette use by smoking status and the heavy concentration of e-cigarette use among current smokers, the simulated effects of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation generate substantially larger changes to smoking prevalence relative to their effects on smoking initiation.