Modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal variation in the risk of chronic malnutrition among under-five children in Ghana
Modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal variation in the risk of chronic malnutrition among under-five children in Ghana
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DOI：
10.1016/j.sste.2017.02.003
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Diggle, Peter J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aheto, Justice Moses K.;Taylor, Benjamin M.;Diggle, Peter J.
背景：在加纳等大多数发展中国家，5岁以下儿童营养不良的时空变化尚未得到研究。本研究探讨并预测这些儿童中儿童慢性营养不良的时空模式。我们还调查了母亲教育对儿童营养不良的影响。方法：我们分析了居住在1516个地理位置的10,036名儿童的数据。一个时空模型拟合的数据，并被用来产生预测地图的时空变化的发育迟缓的概率。结果：该研究发现大量的时空变化发育迟缓的患病率。此外，较高水平的母亲的教育与被stunted.Conclusion的风险降低：我们的时空模型捕捉的变化，在儿童发育迟缓的地方和时间。我们的方法促进和丰富了未来发育迟缓患病率的建模和预测，以确定高风险地区。在解决儿童营养不良问题的总体战略中，可以更多地考虑改善产妇教育。(C)2017爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Background: Spatio-temporal variation in under-5-year-old children malnutrition remains unstudied in most developing countries like Ghana. This study explores and forecasts the spatio-temporal patterns in childhood chronic malnutrition among these children. We also investigate the effect of maternal education on childhood malnutrition.Methods: We analysed data on 10,036 children residing in 1516 geographic locations. A spatio-temporal model was fitted to the data and was used to produce predictive maps of spatio-temporal variation in the probability of stunting.Results: The study found substantial spatio-temporal variation in the prevalence of stunting. Also, higher levels of mother's education were associated with decreased risk of being stunted.Conclusion: Our spatio-temporal model captured variations in childhood stunting over place and time. Our method facilitates and enriches modelling and forecasting of future stunting prevalence to identify areas at high risk. Improving maternal education could be given greater consideration within an overall strategy for addressing childhood malnutrition. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.