ON MODELING AND INTERPRETING THE ECONOMICS OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE
ON MODELING AND INTERPRETING THE ECONOMICS OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE
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DOI：
10.1162/rest.91.1.1
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发表时间：
2009-02-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Weitzman, Martin L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Weitzman, Martin L.
本文以气候变化为原型，分析了结构性不确定性对低概率、高影响巨灾经济学的影响。即使通过贝叶斯学习更新，不确定的结构参数也会导致后验预测分布的关键“尾部肥胖”。这种“肥尾巴”对气候变化等情况有很强的影响，在这些情况下，灾难在理论上是可能的，因为先前的知识不能对整体损失进行足够狭窄的界定。本文表明，厚尾结构不确定性（沿着对高温损害的不确定性）的经济后果可以轻易超过气候变化政策分析中贴现的影响。
With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical "tail fattening" of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages. This paper shows that the economic consequences of fat-tailed structural uncertainty (along with unsureness about high-temperature damages) can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate-change policy analysis.