Research and Application of Flash Flood Early Warning Method Based on Dynamic Critical Precipitation
Research and Application of Flash Flood Early Warning Method Based on Dynamic Critical Precipitation
复制标题
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ye Jinyi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ye Jinyi
提出一种基于动态临界降水量的山洪预警方法。该方法利用新安江模型计算土壤湿度饱和度，并根据土壤湿度饱和度和每次洪水前6 h、12 h和24 h最大降水量，采用最小均方误差准则的Widrow-Hoff算法，建立6 h、12 h和24 h 3个时间尺度的预警判别函数。 利用该方法，结合淞河盆地降水站2003—2009年发生的17次洪水事件的降雨资料，对模型参数进行了标定，并应用该方法在10次历史山洪事件中验证了3个时间尺度的预警判别函数。预测正确率均在70%以上，表明该方法可靠，可用于山洪预报和预报。 预警。
A flash flood early warning method based on dynamic critical precipitation is proposed in this paper.The method calculates soil moisture saturation using the Xin'anjiang model,then sets up forewarning discriminant functions for three time-scales,6 h,12 h and 24 h,using Widrow-Hoff algorithm of minimum mean square error criteria,and based on soil moisture saturation and maximum 6 h,12 h and 24 h precipitation before each flood event.With this method,together with rainfall data of the 17 flood events occurring during the period from 2003 to 2009,wich are obtained at precipitation stations in Pihe Basin parameters for the model are calibrated and the method is applied in 10 historical flash flood events to verify the three time-scale forewarning discriminent functions.The correct forecast rate is over 70%,demonstrating that the method is reliable and can be used to flash flood forecasting and early warning.