Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0086973
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发表时间：
2014-01-31
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Grewar, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moore, Christine;Cumming, Graeme S.;Grewar, John
背景资料：许多复杂系统的管理重点正在转向便利化、适应、建设复原力和减少脆弱性。复原力管理需要制定和应用一般的统计学和方法，以跟踪复原力和脆弱性的变化。我们探讨了南非国内鸵鸟业的脆弱性，动物生产系统，通常涉及3-4运动的每只鸟在其一生中出现。该系统经历了几次疾病爆发，本研究的目的是调查这些运动是否有助于该系统的脆弱性大disease outbreaks.Methodology/主要调查结果：鸵鸟生产系统需要大量的运动与增长（即孵化场到青少年饲养场成人饲养场）之间的不同农场类型的鸟类。我们使用了2005年至2011年高致病性禽流感（H5 N2）爆发前5年的移动记录。这些数据使用网络分析进行分析，其中农场被表示为节点，鸟类的运动被表示为链接。我们测试的假设，在南非国内鸵鸟业的经济效率的提高，使系统更容易受到高致病性禽流感（H5 N2）的爆发。我们的研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，网络变得越来越容易受到病原体爆发。在疫情爆发期间感染的农场显示网络质量，如显着更高的连接性和中心性，这使他们更容易受到疾病爆发的影响。结论/意义：在以往的研究背景下，我们的研究结果提供了强有力的支持，网络分析的应用程序，以跟踪漏洞，同时也提供了有用的实际意义系统的监测和管理。
Background: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks.Methodology/Principal Findings: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak.Conclusions/Significance: Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management.