Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach
Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.03.007
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wu, Lianhai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abalos, Diego;Cardenas, Laura M.;Wu, Lianhai
随着气候变化影响的速度和程度不断加快，弄清气候变化对农业的影响变得越来越重要。目前对气候变化对一氧化二氮（N2O）排放的影响的估计在很大程度上仍不确定；有必要对这种影响进行更加一致和全面的评估。在本研究中，我们采用基于过程的模式（SPACSYS），探讨了IPCC的两个气候变化预测（高排放情景和中排放情景）对英格兰西南部草原在2020年代、2050年代和2080年代基线时间片上N2O排放的影响。利用从该地区三个草地收集的数据集对模型进行了初步校准和验证。统计分析表明，与实测值相比，模拟结果没有显著的总误差或偏差。我们发现，在未来气候变化情景下，与基线情景相比，N2O排放量持续增加高达94%，而变暖而非降水变率是控制N2O上升的主要因素。模拟肥料形式表明，用尿素或浆料代替硝酸铵肥料可显著减少N2O排放（约30%）。我们的研究强调了现在采取可行的一氧化二氮减排措施的迫切必要性，以避免未来更高的排放量。(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Unravelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture becomes increasingly important, as the rates and magnitude of its effects are accelerating. Current estimates of the consequences of climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain largely uncertain; there is a need for more consistent and comprehensive assessments of this impact. In this study we explored the implications of two IPCC climate change projections (high and medium emissions scenarios) on N2O emissions from South West England grasslands for the time slices of a baseline, the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s, employing a process-based model (SPACSYS). The model was initially calibrated and validated using datasets collected from three grassland sites of the region. Statistical analysis showed that simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values. We found a consistent increase in N2O emissions of up to 94% under future climate change scenarios compared to those under the baseline, and warming rather than precipitation variability was the overriding factor controlling the N2O rise. Modelling fertilizer forms showed that replacing ammonium-nitrate fertilizers with urea or slurry significantly reduced N2O emissions (c. 30%). Our study highlights the urgent necessity to adopt viable N2O mitigation measures now in order to avoid higher emissions in the future. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.